Thread by @mvankerkhove

(Unsurprisingly) I welcome further studies on the origins of #SARSCoV2

Short thread with initial thoughts on two preprints released yesterday. Bottom line: Keep following the science because many more studies are needed.

1/11

2/ Critical to any understanding of the emergence of a new pathogen are studies of the earliest known and suspected cases. Identifying the first human case of a new disease is EXTREMELY difficult, if not impossible.

3/ There could be multiple spillover events from an animal reservoir or intermediate host(s) before the virus spread efficiently. These early cases would be extremely difficult to be identify…sequencing is critical.

4/ Data from multiple studies are needed — it's like detective work (and I mean this without a police reference).

For #SARSCoV2 more studies are needed to better understand the exposures of the earliest known and even earlier potential cases. eg (ie not complete list), we need:

5/ -studies that trace back wild & domestic animals sold at Wuhan markets in autumn/winter’19, testing of any remaining samples from that time period;
-serologic studies of people in Wuhan & Hubei, serologic sampling & interviews of people who worked at markets or source farms…

6/ -any sequences from the earlier cases before first documented cases or from animals sold at markets would be hugely valuable
-studies of SARS-CoV-like viruses in animals around the world
-follow up of any positive samples🌍🌎🌏from 2019
-evidence to rule out other hypotheses…

7/ The Mar’21 @WHO-China report previously reported positive environmental results from Huanan market, that there were likely many more cases in Dec’19 than recognized based on excess mortality in early-mid Jan’20, they recommended further examination of 76k ILI episodes in’19…

8/ Several studies since Mar’21 have identified animal species that were sold at Wuhan markets that are susceptible to #SARSCoV2 infection.

The Huanan market indeed played a very important role in this pandemic, but I would urge further studies continue to be needed…

9/ …to trace back animals sold there prior to the first detected cases. We need more serology in specific populations and to ensure we further study earlier suspected cases into November 2019 and possibly earlier.

Thanks to those globally who continue to work on this.

10/ SAGO is working on their first report to @WHO. We continue to need science to guide the way, collaboration and openness from experts and the space to work.

Right, lets get back to work

https://twitter.com/who/status/1448731271874686978

11/ Here are the two preprints (not yet peer-reviewed). Lots of good threads by the authors themselves—much uncertainty remains. Paper needs peer-review.

We welcome more research in this area. Science, solutions, solidarity.

zenodo.org/record/6299116

zenodo.org/record/6291628