Russian units are not fighting as BTGs. They’re not doing combined arms warfare. They’re driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon and VDV units forward. Tanks without infantry. It’s not going well for them because this isn’t how they organize and fight (more later).
https://twitter.com/EliotACohen/status/1498028426992705541
Folks are taking the right lessons about Ukraine’s military from this, but a number of the wrong ones about the Russian military. This operation looks terrible, and it should, because it’s assumptions were nuts, but this isn’t the Russian mil fighting as it would against NATO.
It’s taken me a while to figure out what they’re trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. Ukraine’s military has done great. The Russian op is a bizarre scheme, based on terrible political assumptions, with poor relationship to their training & capabilities.
A fight with NATO would obviously be much worse for Russia given the match up, but it wouldn’t look like this mess (probably a different kind of mess).
Outside of the fighting NW of Kyiv we have a lot of smaller detachments, tanks, IFVs, often recon or VDV units pressing down roads & into cities. Often small formations outrunning logistics, without support, or letting support getting ambushed - its a mess.
I know a bunch of people are going to read this and say ‘what?’ I will elaborate in a proper thread later.
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