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Michael Kofman Profile picture
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Feb 26 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It looks as though Russian units are moving along the southeastern coast towards Berdyansk and Mariupol. Most videos suggest they're past Melitopol.

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Michael Kofman Profile picture
Feb 27
Russian units are not fighting as BTGs. They’re not doing combined arms warfare. They’re driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon and VDV units forward. Tanks without infantry. It’s not going well for them because this isn’t how they organize and fight (more later).
Folks are taking the right lessons about Ukraine’s military from this, but a number of the wrong ones about the Russian military. This operation looks terrible, and it should, because it’s assumptions were nuts, but this isn’t the Russian mil fighting as it would against NATO.
It’s taken me a while to figure out what they’re trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. Ukraine’s military has done great. The Russian op is a bizarre scheme, based on terrible political assumptions, with poor relationship to their training & capabilities.
Read 6 tweets
Michael Kofman Profile picture
Feb 25
Some very early impressions of the last two days. It's an operation with maximalist war aims, and Moscow's thinking on this war seems to have been colored by war optimism. It looked as though Russian forces were expecting a quicker UKR military collapse and easier gains. 1/
Early campaign to knock out Ukrainian air defenses and air force had mixed results, Russian aerospace forces aren't particularly practiced at SEAD or DEAD. Most of the strikes in the opening phase were via cruise missiles. UKR air force still has some aircraft up. 2/
A brazen heliborne assault to take Hostomel airport with a small airborne element was a puzzling move. I doubt the goal was to land more airborne at a contested airport easily covered by artillery and MLRS. Likely they expected to hold out for ground reinforcements. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Michael Kofman Profile picture
Feb 24
I made a basic map, with red arrows, which I have held off from posting because I believed it would not be responsible to put something out like that unless it was clear the war had begun. This is just one very incomplete estimate of what the Russian op plan might look like.
Maps like this can be terrifying so please use with caution and don't treat it as any kind of established fact.
Just to emphasize, the Russian campaign does have maximalist war aims. It is about regime change, and multi-axes ground offensive. There's no evidence it will necessarily stop at the river.
Read 4 tweets
Michael Kofman Profile picture
Feb 12
Sure looks like 4th tank division moving up
Its a bit blurry, but those look like T-80Us rather than BVMs, and that suggests a BTG from 4th Tank Division.
@80bvm you're missing your moment here.
Read 4 tweets
Michael Kofman Profile picture
Feb 4
The large number of forces Russia shifted from its Eastern Military District (12 BTGs+) to Belarus is illustrative of the degree of vulnerability Moscow is comfortable with China. The Russian Far East has probably not been stripped of combat power like this in decades. /1
This large deployment from EMD, unprecedented in contemporary history, offers one additional piece of evidence that the alignment liberates both states to pursue their respective contests, without having to invest as much in hedging against each other. 2/
If Moscow does go through with a large-scale military operation, this deployment will not be short lived. It suggests Eastern MD will be understrength for quite some time and it shows a degree of Russian confidence in the relationship. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Michael Kofman Profile picture
Feb 4
I'm going to differ a bit, this is looking for the wrong item in the text. Russia never framed this confrontation as being about Ukraine, it framed it as being about security guarantees and 'indivisibility of security' in Europe, using that as a vehicle to discuss its demands. 1/
The text very clearly indicates Chinese support for Russia's demands on security guarantees in Europe. We know what those are, and which countries they concern. So its a puzzle why folks are expecting to find Ukraine listed in all caps somewhere.
And it shows support for the Russian formulation regarding indivisibility of security.
Read 5 tweets

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