Thread by @KofmanMichael

Some very early impressions of the last two days. It's an operation with maximalist war aims, and Moscow's thinking on this war seems to have been colored by war optimism. It looked as though Russian forces were expecting a quicker UKR military collapse and easier gains. 1/

Early campaign to knock out Ukrainian air defenses and air force had mixed results, Russian aerospace forces aren't particularly practiced at SEAD or DEAD. Most of the strikes in the opening phase were via cruise missiles. UKR air force still has some aircraft up. 2/

A brazen heliborne assault to take Hostomel airport with a small airborne element was a puzzling move. I doubt the goal was to land more airborne at a contested airport easily covered by artillery and MLRS. Likely they expected to hold out for ground reinforcements. 3/

So far we've seen only a fraction of the Russian force arrayed for the operation. Unclear if Russian forces reached initial objectives, but best estimate is they expected more rapid gains & less resistance. 4/

Russian forces seem to be avoiding use of massed fires, except maybe around Kharkiv, focusing on trying to make a speedy advance. Expect they will revert to much larger use of fires when frustrated. Not seeing much in the way of cyber and less EW effects than many anticipated. 5/

Russian forces are mainly sticking to the road network (as in 2014-2015). Early advances made by recon troops, but driving along roads left support units open to ambushes. Already signs of urban warfare and firefights in cities. 6/

There has been heavy fighting around Kharkiv and in Symi. Russian forces tried to advance past Okhtyrka, and it looks like they're attempting to go around Kharkiv. There is also an advance west of Symi to Konotop. This is a very incomplete picture. 7/

Russian forces entered from Belarus and went through Chernobyl exclusion zone to Dymer. Early signs of fighting on outskirts of Kyiv in Obolonskyi distict today. They're clearly going for the capital. 8/

Main breakout appears to be in the south from Crimea. Russian forces pushed to Kherson, and Melitopol. There's sustained fighting for Kherson still and around Antonovsky bridge. Some early signs they may have entered Mykolaiv, but probably just a recon element. 9/

Russian forces retain significant quantitative and qualitative superiority. UKR forces have demonstrated resolve & resilience. Russian conventional overmatch, such as it is, may not translate into attaining their maximalist political aims. This is just the opening of the war. End