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Feb 27 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
I am grateful to the @smh for publishing my Australian #Realpolitik perspective on the Russian problem, both in terms of Russia's historic drivers & the West's mishandling of its Russian relationship for 30 years, esp as the #DragonBear pact looms over Eurasia & the Indo-Pacific. Image
The @smh has published a rejoinder to my piece above. Read it and make up your own mind. I think it is an error to focus on 90s matters when Russia was on its knees - also doubt Navalny is any threat to the regime. Putin’s replacement may be more competent but will be like minded Image
This by @latikambourke with @simonmontefiore reinforces what I said above - that Putin is basically making good the traditional Tsarist vision of Russia. Again - the 1990s Russia that seems to have formed so many minds here was an historic aberration.

smh.com.au/world/europe/h…

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More from @GrayConnolly

Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 20
Nutmeg is lazy and phoning it in.

Paprika is under appreciated beyond the Magyars.
Good morning to new Hungarian followers …
You can understand something of the Magyar identity when you are sensing that Hussar-like admixture of beef and paprika....ready to meet the advancing Ottomans
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Mar 19
I have tried to avoid the "Mean Girls" saga but it is difficult to overstate how much our unbiased etc Media - esp the ABC - have promoted Penny Wong & Kristina Keneally (no idea who Gallagher is...the wannabe group follower?) and denied the obvious about their conduct.
No serious person thinks, if this saga were occurring on the Coalition side, the ABC would be other than in a form of (further) meltdown, while the Guardian would have Murpharoo & Amy Remikis liveblogging Melbourne slam poets reacting to 'the revenge of the not quite patriarchy'
The tragedy of it all, amid many, is we actually need - esp on national security issues - to have a 'vital centre' where, whatever else we disagree on, we agree on A, B, C, to do with the defence and security of Australia. Kimberley Kitching, like Danby, was that vital centrist.
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Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 17
The Soviets put enormous effort into trying to convince the British media/MI6 that Sir Roger Hollis, the best UK counter intelligence professional, was actually "the Fifth Man". The Peter Wright book was a product of this. The Russians do not waste time on the already compromised
There was no upside for the Russians in facilitating a serious disinformation op against Biden to stop him becoming President - the Russians knew Biden, his family's corrupt racket & that Biden himself was not what he was ... the Russians esp wanted the last 2 years' calamities.
The Russians collect compromising material on everyone aka kompromat but the Kremlin would never impede foreign VIPs (as compromised by dealings on the Russian periphery like the Bidens) from achieving high office in the US. The Kremlin wants compromised people in high office.
Read 8 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 16
Apropos a few matters here: in 2022, sadly, there are, actually, very few, esp in media, who will defend the rule of law, particularly for people they disagree with, or for unpopular people. Scoff now but one day it could be you relying on the presumption of innocence & proof BRD
One of social media's few benefits is you see who of the very opinionated/online people are prepared to defend the rule of law when the media are at their most feral & their resulting herd stampedes. Today, someone you dislike may be targeted ...tomorrow? It may be you? Roper?
A crime occurred when A does B to C, on date X, at time Y, at place Z. Police investigate these allegations. A prosecution is brought. There is either evidence beyond a reasonable doubt to convict A for crime B - or there is not. Courts determines this matter - not mobs.
Read 6 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 1
As it is Ash Wednesday tomorrow - any Catholics doing this “I am Twitter fasting for Lent because I have issues” (when being online here is a penance) is in grave sin & a shows a lack of zeal for evangelisation of the masses and correction of error … as the Holy Office held.🇻🇦
Further to the above, the Papal censure against Quietism and the like remains in force - do not try and forgo your duty as a Catholic to poast in order affect some neo protestant pose, like some Mike Baird, over promoted youth minister
The job of Catholics in Lent, as in the various old times when the Ottomans were at the gates of Vienna, is to fight through and to poast through, come what may. Really like the Maccabees (the Prots do not have those books, either). Rome has spoken etc
Read 6 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Feb 27
Some #Realpolitik - very unlikely, even if Russia's campaign failed, that much changes - Putin, removed, Khruschev like, is replaced by someone with Putin's views & but also the competency to have removed Putin. Too much wishcasting. Russia like Iran is a semi-garrison state.
Agree with @SamoBurja here - Russia's various centres of power all align with the view that Russia must be strong and assertive. The replacement for Putin would simply say, I can do this more competently.

There remains this almost religious Western liberal belief that, when they see some Russian or Iranian expat on TV, who speaks English & says nice things & seems like someone they meet in the university cafeteria, that this person represents views of historically imperial powers.
Read 6 tweets

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