Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: The period of 26-27 February saw a general operational pause in the Northern Theater as Rus Forces reinforce and resupply forward units. Little change has occurred in the Donbas Theater. To the south Rus Forces threaten Mariupol.
#UkraineRussia

2/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Limited attacks in the west Kyiv suburbs have not produced substantive results. It appears Russia’s initial planning assessment assumed Ukrainian defenses would rapidly collapse.

3/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: The Russian General Staff is having to reassess the correlation of forces required to punch through stiff Ukrainian resistance to score not only an important military victory, but a morale victory for their forces.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497923042101575685?s=20&t=_Ou-bneMzQr1tI7otuNb5w

4/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: This will more than likely only be possible if the Russians have correctly identified and corrected their operational reach dilemmas and improve their ability to establish more effective and reliable logistical support.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497855868548825088?s=20&t=uCZ6rwHBoW6fj9gPTHLoig

5/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Activity in this AO provides the greatest insight into the short comings of Russian strategic thinking, operational planning, and tactical knowledge.

6/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: It appears that Russian planners assumed the shock of their limited aerospace campaign and deep airmobile assaults were enough to cause a rapid collapse of Ukrainian resistance.

7/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: Expecting only minimal Ukrainian resistance, planners at the CAA level assumed that units could rapidly advance down major highways to their immediate objectives.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497917151314911234?s=20&t=_Ou-bneMzQr1tI7otuNb5w

8/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: This was also a practical necessity due to conscripts poor training. It is becoming obvious that Rus forces have little to no training at large scale maneuver. BTGs are operating more as company teams than effective tactical units.

9/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: This is appearing evident in the haphazard way units are advancing, lack of tactical maneuver until the reconnaissance element gains contact, poor or complete lack of air-ground integration, and units moving beyond their ADA umbrella.

10/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: BTG commanders are overwhelmed in trying to maneuver, engage with Ukrainian forces, coordinate with adjacent units, and meet their assigned objectives with inadequate logistical support or effective unit synchronization at the Brigade level.

11/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. It is unlikely that Russian forces will take Kharkiv by direct assault. They will have to rely on either a successful bypass to the southeast or the collapse of the LOC.

12/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. This may become the decisive theater of operations as Rus forces threaten to encircle the LOC from the southwest. Rus success here may unravel Ukraine’s effective national defense.

13/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: Aerospace Operation Assessment, the Ukrainian General Staff report Russia has conducted at least 5 air and 16 missile strikes targeting Ukrainian airbases in western Ukraine with the goal of grounding the Ukrainian air force.

14/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: Aerospace Operation Assessment, the inability of Russian Aerospace Forces to gain air superiority in the opening days of the war is perhaps the most significant strategic failure to date.

15/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 4: Casualty and battle damage reports are still generally unreliable. However, Russia has suffered considerable losses in men and material. There are an estimate 422,000 internally displaced persons as of 27 Feb.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1497825329498533891?s=20&t=uCZ6rwHBoW6fj9gPTHLoig

16/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis will begin in the coming days.