Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Today saw the Russians continue to complete the resupply and reinforcement of their forces in the Northern Theater of Operations. Continued failure to take Kharkiv has seen an increased use of area-attack munitions.
#UkraineRussiaWar

2/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Overall Russian Assessment; It is possible that the ad hoc command structure of the Russian invasion force is the likely cause of its systemic logistical and command failures.

3/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Overall Russian Assessment; It is quite possible that the Russians made these command arraignments only days before the invasion. If this is the case, then it would explain poor logistical support and command execution.

4/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Without clearly delineated command authorities, units were undoubtedly confused as to who was responsible for planning and coordinating logistical distribution as well as authority for mission execution.

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680?s=20&t=8FUtKXMJi5A_NqN8hfDaSA

5/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: This also explains why Russian command execution from the BTG through the division level has been severally challenged to coordinate tactical actions.

6/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: It does speak to the strength and resourcefulness of company level leadership to operate with marginal effectiveness within a known commander’s plan of action. To date Russian forces have been most effective at this level.

7/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: The Russians have probably identified these short comings and have also been using the past several days to either clarify ad hoc command structure authorities & responsibilities or reestablish parent unit structures.

8/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: If this is the case then expect BTG & regimental / brigade operational effectiveness to improve, though to what degree remains to be seen.

https://twitter.com/monkeycageblog/status/1498373668606513163?s=20&t=8FUtKXMJi5A_NqN8hfDaSA

9/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. The Russians will probably attempt to still encircle Kyiv as much as possible to avoid the strongest Ukrainian defensive positions in the northern parts of the city.

10/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Ukrainian forces are now hard pressed to maintain a contiguous defensive line running from Chernihiv in the north to Okhtyrka in the south.

11/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. This theater continues to see the most troubling developments for the Ukrainians, as Russian and Separatist forces are slowly gaining ground along the LOC.

12/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. Mariupol is under sustained Russian assault. Kherson has most likely fallen to Russian Airborne and Spetsnaz forces. It is not clear if the Russians will make for Odesa or Dnipro.

13/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Aerospace Operation Assessment; US/NATO defense officials estimate that Russia has used over 400 cruise missiles, sea-launched missiles, and med-range ballistic missiles since the invasion began.

14/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 6: Ukrainian Overall Assessment; the dilemmas facing the Ukrainian General Staff have not changed. Most worrisome at this point is the defense of the Donbas, retaining operational airfields in the west, and the defense of Kyiv.

15/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

16/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.