Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: 28 February saw Russian forces reorganizing and reorienting to overcome failures and short comings of the past 96 hours. What remains to be seen is if the Russian military can adapt effectively to the situation it now faces.
#UkraineRussiaWar

2/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Ukrainian forces have so far defied the odds but are still hard pressed and will more than likely must make some difficult decisions in the coming days to retain an effective military force capable of defeating the Rus invasion.

3/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Overall Russian Assessment; the Russian Armed Forces remain a highly capable and combat effective force despite some recent analysis to the contrary. Even with haphazard execution, the Rus offensive is positioned to rupture Ukraine’s defenses.

4/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Overall Ukrainian Assessment; the Ukrainian military will not be able to sustain a prolonged national defense without access to direct Western military assistance. They must retain what Air & Sea points of entry they have control of.

5/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Overall Ukrainian Assessment; failure to retain Odessa and functional airfields in western Ukraine will cripple their ability to maintain effective combat units. Likewise, they must retain a viable defense of Kharkiv and the Donbas.

6/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. The Ukrainians must not allow forces in Chernihiv become encircled. They will more than likely make a difficult decision to withdraw from Chernihiv, this will open Kyiv up to attack from the east.

7/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Although Russian forces in this AO have had the most high-profile reports of low morale, inadequate logistical support, and poor leadership they have still made important gains.

8/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Though by bypassing multiple Ukrainian defensive positions Russian forces are inviting attacks on already stressed supply lines, it is a risk they seem willing to make for the political prize of Kyiv.

9/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. It is in this theater that the Ukrainians will face their most difficult choices. The Russians have made steady progress here despite the failure to take Kharkiv.

10/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Ukrainian forces in northern Luhansk and Mariupol are in danger of being encircled. Ukraine cannot afford to lose large bodies of combat capable units.

11/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: This would be a military and morale defeat from which the Ukrainians cannot recover. Withdrawing from these areas to preserve these forces will mean a retreat to the west bank of the Dnieper, this would be a significant political setback.

12/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Stated another way, Russian forces are positioned to set conditions for one of Putin’s stated strategic goals, the recognition of the DPR & LPR as sovereign states (or a part of Russia) at their pre-2014 Oblast borders.

13/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. The situation in southern Ukraine remains critical, if the Russians can project enough force on the east side of the Dnieper, they can threaten Odessa and key points to the north.

14/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Aerospace Operation Assessment; It is likely we will see a greater employment of air capability in the coming days. Air strikes will increase in the west to degrade Ukraine’s ability to receive lethal foreign aid.

15/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Aerospace Operation Assessment; except to see improved air-ground integration and close air support of ground operations, as well as the use of SVP-24 assisted freefall bombs to shore up PGM shortages.

16/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: It is highly possible that Russian and Belarusian forces will open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine with the objective of closing the lines of communication to ground shipments of Western lethal aid.

17/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: A Russian advance into the west will also force a difficult decision for the Ukrainians in the form of how they reallocate forces to the west. A new region to defend will threaten the integrity of an effective national defense.

18/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: This war has thus far reinforced the importance of the morale sphere of war. The Russians and Ukrainians are in a race against time. Can the Ukrainians inflict enough punishment on the Russia before their will breaks?

19/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: Can the Russians sustain their war effort in the face of an international community that has mobilized against it to inflict what may amount to catastrophic economic punishment?

20/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 5: The next 72-96 hours will be critical in determining the ability for either Ukraine or Russia to ultimately prevail.

21/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis will begin in the coming days.

22/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.