Thread by @DavidSteadson

Unconfirmed reports from a UA parliamentarian that Poland will let Ukraine fly combat missions from Polish airbase.

If true this sounds very risky as Putin may see it as NATO involvement and retaliate.

But! It may be a very smart move and here's why...

ukraine.segodnya.ua/amp-ukraine/ev…

Right now, Putin is essentially daring NATO to get involved. I suspect he believes they won't because of the risk of nuclear war.

He believes however he will take Ukraine, forcing a surrender once he begins mass bombing civilians ala Grozny, Aleppo and Homs.
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Today's use of cluster munitions and (reportedly) a thermobaric weapon are warnings... This is what's coming.

I believe however that NATO won't standby if there is mass slaughter of civilians on our doorstep, not to mention millions of refugees

NATO will intervene directly
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If nothing else the public will demand it.

Putin then however can lay the blame on whatever happens next on NATO... they got involved in a war with nothing to do with their mission. He has to retaliate. He is the victim.

So what happens if Ukraine Flys or of Polish airbases?
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That's a Polish decision, not NATO, and no different to Belarus's role so far.

If Putin attacks Poland then it is *he* who has attacked NATO and potentially starts WW3 and a nuclear war. Right now he's playing NATOs fear of nuclear war.
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This reverses the dynamic. Now it's Putin... and perhaps more importantly his Generals... who have to decide whether *they* want to attack NATO first and be responsible for the consequences.

Remember NATO is almost certainly going to get involved sooner or later. >

This puts NATO in the stronger negotiating position, not to mention tactical position. and hopefully may prevent the slaughter we'll soon otherwise see in Ukraine.