Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Mar 1, 2022 11 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1) New Zealand, which for so long had fended off the #pandemic with well-planned public health protections, is now in the grip of an #Omicron-driven wave. But unlike Hong Kong where #COVID deaths are soaring, New Zealand is faring much better. In this thread, I will explain why.
2) First, though, let us examine the current state of contagion in New Zealand, a progressive island nation of more than 5 million people. The country reported 14,633 new cases of #COVID19 in the community on Monday as it carries out widespread testing, unlike in Canada.
3) New Zealand’s Ministry of Health has declared 344 patients in hospital being treated for #COVID, with five in the ICU. That compares with 1,446 such hospitalizations in Québec, which has a population 8.6 million and which has often resorted to half measures in the #pandemic.
4) New Zealand's #COVID contagion is being driven largely by #Omicron and its sub-variant BA.2, which both quickly overtook the Delta #corornavirus. But unlike what is now occurring in Hong Kong, the Omicron wave has not resulted in skyrocketing hospitalizations. Why is that?
5) The short answer is that unlike Hong Kong, New Zealand has succeeded in carrying out mass vaccination against #COVID. In fact, New Zealand has already surpassed Canada in boosting its population, as the chart below by Our World in Data makes clear.
6) New Zealand, one of the first nations in the world to implement effective public health measures, switched more than a month ago to “life at red,” a color-coded alert system that Québec and other politically-motivated jurisdictions abandoned much earlier in the #pandemic.
7) At the red setting, Kiwis “can visit cafés and bars, attend gatherings and events, and (even) go to the hairdresser and gym" — provided they have a “vaccine pass,” according to New Zealand’s government. Meanwhile, Québec and other jurisdictions are moving to do the opposite.
8) Inspired by Canada’s anti-mask trucker protests, demonstrators in New Zealand did take to its Parliament two weeks ago. But cheeky authorities cracked down swiftly by playing old Barry Manilow songs on loop, along with vaccine messages. Would Ottawa police have done the same.
9) To date, New Zealand has not counted a single #COVID death in its #Omicron-driven wave. New Zealand last declared a #pandemic fatality on Dec. 28, as the chart compiled from information by Johns Hopkins University shows below.
10) It’s still early days in New Zealand’s latest #COVID wave. But its high rate of vaccination and reliance on public health protections suggest it will fare much better than many jurisdictions, Canada included. This strategy is known as true #VaccinePlus. End of thread.
ADDENDUM: I'm indebted to Patrick Lam (@va2lam) for pointing out an error in tonight's thread. On Feb. 25, New Zealand did confirm #COVID deaths in its #Omicron wave — five in fact, not yet posted on may official dashboards. My apologies.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Nov 30
1) Author @GadSaad, who has taken an unpaid leave from Concordia University, has just written this commentary in the New York Post, headlined: "How Montreal became the antisemitism capital of North America." Here are my thoughts on this topic.

nypost.com/2024/11/30/opi…
2) Obviously, it's debatable as to whether Montreal is indeed the antisemitism capital of the continent. As many Jews are painfully aware, antisemitism sadly exists everywhere. But recent events in Montreal have caused many Jews here to feel unsafe.
montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) A friend just sent this text: "Recently, several of my Jewish friends - lifelong Montrealers - have made the difficult decision to leave the city. They’re not leaving for better opportunities or a change of scenery, but because they and their children no longer feel safe...+"
Read 6 tweets
Aug 16
1) BREAKING: The lengthy #COVID19 summer wave is continuing unabated in Quebec, along with other parts of North America and even around the world. Here in Quebec, it has been associated directly and indirectly with 1,100 hospitalizations for the past 12 days in a row. Image
2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, the #COVID testing positivity rate in Quebec was 20.9 per cent as of Aug. 11, the most recent date available. The trend line suggests the positivity rate has yet to peak. Image
3) Although nowhere near as fatal as it was back in 2020 (when vaccination was unavailable), #COVID this year has nonetheless been linked to 675 deaths, 38.7 per cent of which have occurred in octogenarians. But 30 Quebecers in their 50s have also died from #COVID in 2023-2024. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 13
1) On Tuesday, the Quebec government unveiled its 2024-2025 budget, with the biggest expenditure to be made on health and social services. In this Twitter thread, I assess whether this "Health/Education Priorities" budget lives up to its hype, especially when it comes to seniors.
2) As you can see from the chart below, the lion's share of spending in the budget is for health and social services, pegged at $61.9 billion — up by 4.17% from the year before. In contrast, spending on education — so vital to Quebec's future — will rise 9.35% to $22.3 billion. Image
3) But as far as health and social services is concerned, Tuesday's budget may be indulging in a bit of spin. The chart below states that Quebec will spend an extra $3.7 billion over the next five years to "support a humane and effective organization of health care." Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 5
1) "The pandemic is far from over," one of the preeminent experts on #COVID19, Dr. Eric Topol, declared today, Jan. 4, 2024 — three years after the world first learned of a novel virus that was killing people in China. In this thread, I take stock of what's going on in Quebec.
2) "The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2," Topol noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. In Quebec, nearly one in two genetic samples collected was from JN.1 as of two weeks ago. It's likely higher now. Image
3) "Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution ... for infecting or reinfecting us," Topol added. Although the updated booster is considered 60% protective against hospitalization, only 17% of the Quebec population has taken it.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
1) BREAKING: By every major indicator, Quebec's health-care system is now arguably the worst it's ever been. Please click on my story below on Quebec wait lists for cancer and other surgery setting record highs — again. via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Although Quebec has made it a priority to tackle wait lists for cancer surgery, more than 4,400 oncology patients are still waiting for their operations. More than 600 are waiting longer than the medically acceptable delay of 57 days, potentially putting their health at risk. Image
3) Even the wait list for so-called non-urgent surgery has now swelled to nearly 164,000 people. Almost 14,000 Quebecers today have been waiting more than a year for their surgery. At a year's wait, a non-urgent surgery starts to become urgent. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
1) BREAKING: Quebec, like other jurisdictions across North America, is now in the midst of a new #COVID19 resurgence — nearly 4 years into the #pandemic. In this thread, I will assess the implications of this latest wave of infections, likely driven by a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Image
2) On Dec. 5, Quebec declared a total of 2,214 hospitalizations with and for #COVID. Please note this increase also reflects a change in the way Quebec's public health institute has been compiling such hospitalizations. But make no mistake: Quebec is still facing a resurgence. Image
3) The United States is also facing a #COVID hospitalizations resurgence, with 20,000 new admissions per week, according to preeminent expert @EricTopol. In the U.S., the JN.1 variant is becoming dominant, with wastewater levels surging with SARS-CoV-2. See Topol's tweet below. Image
Read 10 tweets

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