Here's one of many snapshots of that 40 mile long traffic jam of Russian heavy equipment. Some thoughts:
First, it'll take longer for it to get where its going than you think. This isn't the Canadian trucker convoy where they could stop for fuel as they goal...
1/
They have to bring their own. 40 MILES of vehicles will move vvvvvvvvvveeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy sssssssssssslllllllllllooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllyyyy. Military vehicles like tanks get about 1 mile per gallon. They'll likely all run out of fuel multiple times.
2/
And the convoy is so long and moving so slow that every time one vehicle stops, EVERY VEHICLE BEHIND IT MUST STOP AS WELL. I can explain away much of what has gone wrong for Russia in the war to date as it simply being the first week...
3/
...but this is pre-school logistics. If the Ukrainians had any real airpower, they could obliviate this entire column.
Second, this underlines one of the many reasons I - FROM AN AMERICAN POINT OF VIEW - really don't worry about fighting Russia in a conventional war.
4/
The only thing the US military is better at than logistics is glassing targets like this. If there's ever a direct US-Russian fight, it'd be a wipeout...which is why I never want to see it. The only Russian option shy of capitulation would be the nuclear option.
end/
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Lots of folks are tossing around a theory that I find unlikely: that in the aftermath of the #Prighozhin deal, the #Wagner mercs will be transferred to #Belarus in order to launch a fresh (surprise) attack on #Kyiv.
1/
The terms of the deal are for PRIGOZHIN to go to Belarus. All Wagner forces are to sign fresh contracts w the Russian defense ministry and return to the Donbas front in UKRAINE.
2/
There’s no way to move 25k-ish Wagner troops + equipment to Belarus quietly and quickly. Impossible actually, because US satellites and SIGINT are monitoring the space. Not to mention Russia really needs Wagner back in the Donbas ASAP.
3/
The dam is one of the very few ways to cross the Dniepr river. The Russians clearly want to make it as difficult as possible to cross.
There was a navigation lock here. It is now impossible to navigate the lower river.
2/
within four days, the water level will drop below the level that the Crimean Canal can function. That means no water for agriculture on the peninsula. The Russians did this to themselves. Feels like a “If we can’t have it, no one can” moment.
3/
Fog of war, so the normal caution applies, but it appears that the Russians are trying to retreat from #Kherson w their equipment across pontoon bridges. Since #Ukraine sees these minutes after they pop up, all have turned into death traps.
1/
#Russia has a very limited number of pontoons, and soon will have none. That will force the Russians to follow to very specific road corridors along the river to reach the two (badly damaged) hard bridges across the Dneiper…
2/
…with Ukrainian artillery and rocket fire raining down on them the whole time. The survivors will then have to get out of their vehicles and flee on foot, as the bridges are too damaged to support vehicle traffic.
3/
I'm getting ready to speak to a client I first addressed shortly after the 2020 elections and stumbled across this simple data chart I assembled back then. Prepare to be annoyed: 1/
1: Look at the edges. Current, self-identifying Republicans and Democrats voted for their guy. No surprise there.
2: Look at the arrows. Wyoming and Vermont were the most extreme pro- and anti-Trump states. But even there one-in-three voters went for the other guy.
2/
3: Look at the green block. That’s the 6% spread. Is the spread statistically significant? Sure. But that is not what “harsh national division” looks like.
3/
Kerch bridge update:
It's pretty obvious that the reports from last night that rail traffic has resumed were propaganda. That said, the Russians have successfully cleared one of the rail lines, so they are making progress. Damage assessments continue.
1/
The passenger car spend that collapse will take weeks to repair, if not months. But the other one is operating more or less normally now, I'll be at with much more thorough checks.
2/
let's talk cause.
Evidence to this point still points to a truck bomb IMO, but people who seem to know what they're talking about are gravitating towards a missile theory as well.
3/
1/ Russia's military unravelling in the east is occurring so rapidly and in so many places even folks like the Institute for the Study of War are having trouble keeping up. ISW is in general the best clearing house for info.
2/ My summation is that there seems to be a rolling serious of routs in-progress wherever Ukr forces have made contact with the Russians. Kharkiv, of course - the Russian position throughout Kharkiv oblast has, in effect, ended.
3/ But the Ukrainians are also doing far more than probing into Luhansk & even Donetsk. It appears the "Luhansk Republic" (that's the legal fiction the Russians concocted to justify parts of their invasion) has collapsed. No surprise considering it was completely run by Russians.