Lots of folks are tossing around a theory that I find unlikely: that in the aftermath of the #Prighozhin deal, the #Wagner mercs will be transferred to #Belarus in order to launch a fresh (surprise) attack on #Kyiv.
1/ The terms of the deal are for PRIGOZHIN to go to Belarus. All Wagner forces are to sign fresh contracts w the Russian defense ministry and return to the Donbas front in UKRAINE.
2/

You cannot blow up a dam with artillery. You have to use an explosive on the inside. This was definitely the Russians.

Biggest outcomes:

1/
nbcnews.com/news/world/kak… The dam is one of the very few ways to cross the Dniepr river. The Russians clearly want to make it as difficult as possible to cross.

There was a navigation lock here. It is now impossible to navigate the lower river.

2/

Fog of war, so the normal caution applies, but it appears that the Russians are trying to retreat from #Kherson w their equipment across pontoon bridges. Since #Ukraine sees these minutes after they pop up, all have turned into death traps.
1/ #Russia has a very limited number of pontoons, and soon will have none. That will force the Russians to follow to very specific road corridors along the river to reach the two (badly damaged) hard bridges across the Dneiper…
2/

I'm getting ready to speak to a client I first addressed shortly after the 2020 elections and stumbled across this simple data chart I assembled back then. Prepare to be annoyed:
1/ 1: Look at the edges. Current, self-identifying Republicans and Democrats voted for their guy. No surprise there.
2: Look at the arrows. Wyoming and Vermont were the most extreme pro- and anti-Trump states. But even there one-in-three voters went for the other guy.
2/

Kerch bridge update:
It's pretty obvious that the reports from last night that rail traffic has resumed were propaganda. That said, the Russians have successfully cleared one of the rail lines, so they are making progress. Damage assessments continue.
1/ The passenger car spend that collapse will take weeks to repair, if not months. But the other one is operating more or less normally now, I'll be at with much more thorough checks.
2/

1/
Russia's military unravelling in the east is occurring so rapidly and in so many places even folks like the Institute for the Study of War are having trouble keeping up. ISW is in general the best clearing house for info.

understandingwar.org 2/
My summation is that there seems to be a rolling serious of routs in-progress wherever Ukr forces have made contact with the Russians. Kharkiv, of course - the Russian position throughout Kharkiv oblast has, in effect, ended.

A Q&D Ukraine thread:

Details are scarce (or more accurately, <confirmable> details are nearly non-existent), but here’s what <seems> to be happening in the #UkraineWar.
1/ The Russian assault in the Donbas stalled a couple months back, and the Russians repositioned about one-tenth of their forces in Ukraine from the Donbas to the Kherson region.
2/

1/
Someone asked if there is good demographic data yet from #China's 2010 #census. The short answer is "no". Full release has not yet happened. BUT the Chinese ARE publicly discussing the fact that they overcounted their #population by 100m people... 2/
...all of which would have been born since One Child, with most of the missing millions being women. So I've done a rough mock-up of what that might look like. Details will obv vary, but based on what has been released I'm confident this is within the ballpark.

#UkraineWar
Let me start by saying I have no firsthand knowledge of this. Simply spitballing based on what we know from adjacent information.

The US is very clearly reading #Putin's mail and listening to his phone calls.
1/

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520757617437683713

We are as certain as we can be that the US provided targeting information for ##Ukraine's attack on the #Moskva. Now 20 high ranking Russian officers? In one place? Along with the theater commander Putin dispatched to get him a victory before May9?
2/

This is massive. Germany resisted any sort of combined EU debt raising capacity from the start. Before this fund was formed in 2020, the only way the EU could get money was if member states <gave> them the money.
reuters.com/world/europe/e…
1/ Now the EU can issue its own bonds. Germany only agreed to it because of the Covid crisis. Here's what I wrote on the subject when it happened:
zeihan.com/a-faint-flicke…
2/

Here's the UNGA vote on condemning Russia. A few thoughts. 1/ #Syria. No shocker how they voted. But the remaining Russian forces there are about to be cut off from...everything. #Turkey has already closed the Turkish Straits to Russian ships. Wanna kill some Russians without going to Ukraine? Here's your opportunity.

Here's one of many snapshots of that 40 mile long traffic jam of Russian heavy equipment. Some thoughts:

First, it'll take longer for it to get where its going than you think. This isn't the Canadian trucker convoy where they could stop for fuel as they goal...

1/ They have to bring their own. 40 MILES of vehicles will move vvvvvvvvvveeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy sssssssssssslllllllllllooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllyyyy. Military vehicles like tanks get about 1 mile per gallon. They'll likely all run out of fuel multiple times.

2/

Lots here. General update:

1/ The Russian advanced into #Kharkiv, up in northeast #Ukraine and hard on the Russian border, was chopped to bits
wsj.com/articles/ukrai… 2/ Ukraine is forming an international branch of their "military "which will make it much easier for anyone in the world and wants to come and join the fight to do so

DW dumped everything they had into a single article. In no particular order.
1/ The French have started seizing Russian cargo ships on the high seas. That's kinda badass. Very pre-WWI.
dw.com/en/ukraine-hea… 2/ Heavy fighting near Mariupol. Russian forces are pushing out of those eastern secessionist enclaves with the goal of linking up with Crimea.

1/
In light of all the Ukraine goings on, I'm posting some maps from The Absent Superpower. 2/
From the US point of view, Ukraine is not what matters. Instead, its what happens after the Russians have consolidated control over Ukraine & turn to their next targets: Poland and the Baltics.

1/
Quick sequence of some of my favorite #Russia graphics so you can familiarize yourself with the scope of what is unfolding vis-a-vis #Ukraine. Russians live in the green. The wheat belt. The part of Russia that has temperature and rainfall levels to make habitation possible. 2/
Compare that to the #populationdensity map so you know I'm not lying.

Short personal story. Im immunocompromised & I am vaccinated and boosted. Got my Covid shots as soon as I could. Vaccination in March and April of last year, booster in September. 10 days ago I woke up with a sore throat. Tis flu season so I didn't think much about it.
1/ But the next day was… Less fun. Bodyaches, chills, fever, bit of a cough. I've certainly been sicker in my life, but it's not something I aim for. I speak to groups of people for a living, so being patient zero for any sort of outbreak is a big no-no.
2/

Yup. That.
Get the #COVID #vaccine already.
For a point of reference. The death rate from car accidents in the general population is about 12.
1/

https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1487894652103512066

And here you can see where #COVID deaths fall by age group. Great chart.
2/
news-medical.net/news/20210415/….

1/
Quick US military thread:
Military COVID vaccine deadlines start today (active duty Air Force) and continue on service-by-service, active-then-reserve, into next June. 2/
The U.S. military is the most vaccinated population on the planet, and the mandate isn’t so far meeting meaningful resistance.
There 2.1m servicepeople. So far only a small single-digit thousand have applied for exemptions.

1/
I had the opportunity during the past couple of days to have lengthy chats with both #United and #Southwest pilots. So this is both a bit of an explainer for what happened with Southwest’s weekend from hell as well as corporate #VaccineMandates writ large. 2/
Southwest has had just as many problems restaffing since May as the other carriers. (Note: the airline w the worst record on this is American. They sold tickets as if everything was going to be normal, but failed to staff to meet demand. The worst seems to be behind them now)

1/
A #China-centric #demographics chain:

Demographics are about the balance between young and old. Young folks do the work and raise the kids. They are the consumers. 2/

China had scads in that group in the 2000s. When Americans look at this they see waves of cheap workers stealing global jobs. When the politburo looks they see waves of consumption overturning global norms. Both were right. Were. Past tense.