Jack Niewold Profile picture
Mar 1 8 tweets 2 min read
The Solidly Wars have played out in phases:

Understand these quick narrative rotations and you will be able to stay on the gravy train.

Stay stuck and you will fall off.
1. Positioning around allocations

The best plays promised cheap exposure to $SOLID

In this phase microcaps with token allocations pumped:

$PILLS pumped from $1 to nearly $3
Iron Bank pumped from $30 to $200
2. Positioning around Control

Phase two happened immediately post-launch. Instead of owning exposure indirectly, now you could actually own voting rights and tokens.

The best plays were $SOLID, which went from $3 to $15

And $SEX, which went from $3 to $35.
3. Positioning around LP rewards

The next phase focused on sopping up $SOLID emissions. LPs that deployed quickly could expose themselves to 5000%/year

These APRs made tokens to run up as LPs rushed to buy tokens they could earn rewards on.

Small-caps with SOLID votes pumped.
4. Positioning around First Movers

Yesterday, the narrative shifted to the fact that Solidly is insanely inflationary up front. Most rewards are distributed in the first month.

Control goes to those who can sop up the early tokens: so $SEX pumped while 0xDAO faltered.
5. Positioning around LP rewards (round 2)

0xDAO is likely launching today, and with it, a whole round of boosted rewards. 0xDAO will most likely pump, same with the LP pairs with the highest.
6. Positioning around Inflation

The next rotation? Protocols will compete on who can accumulate the most control over $SOLID without getting out-inflated.

0xDAO and Solidex have opportunities to compete here, as does WEVE.

After that, we'll see.
Huge buys rolling on 0xDAO

Wouldn't be surprised if it does a solidex launch-style grind up

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More from @JackNiewold

Mar 2
VeDAO has been playing 4D chess while the rest of us are just out here playing Solidly checkers.

These guys are the gigabrain hedge fund of the Solidly Wars.

Another $SOLID emergency thread; let me explain:

🧵 👇
If you're unfamiliar with what's going on, just think of Solidly as similar to $CRV and $SEX/$OXD as trying to compete against each other to become $CVX.
So VeDAO managed to secure enough TVL early on to get airdropped $SOLID tokens, starting out with approximately 5.3% of supply.

They locked with Solidex, allowing them to boost rewards, get control over Solidex tokens, get control over emissions, and farm lots of tokens.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
Okay emergency $SOLID thread alert, this is too good.

The Solidly Wars are here, this is the narrative you need to be following, I'm so sure of it.

🧵
1. A whale just printed a god candle on $SEX, with two separate $650k buys in the span of a few minutes. Image
2. It's looking like there was a coding error that has lead to over-inflation in the first few weeks of Solidly emissions, leading to emissions being way front-weighted.

Read 11 tweets
Feb 26
TRANSPARENCY TIME:

I make mistakes in my crypto investing at many times a day.

Here is a list of my biggest regrets in crypto investing: the mistakes that have cost me the most money.

🧵👇
1. Anchor Bias

Like a lot of you, I’ve had a round-number portfolio goal in mind for a while.

In December, I got within a few percent, then it fell apart.

Instead of getting back to sound principles and high-conviction positions or stable yields, I went full degen.
This error is called anchor bias, where we focus on a specific reference point instead of reality.

I went to small caps and risk-on plays to ‘make it up’ and then got more rekt than I’d like to admit.

The only number that matters is the current one: everything else is made up.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 25
I haven't attempted to call the bottom of the pullback until now, but I'm a buyer here.

Why?

Shots fired have historically signaled a market bottom.

A 🧵 on my mid-term macro thesis 👇:
Firstly, it's important to recognize how correlated BTC and the NASDAQ have been over the last few months, although BTC is much more volatile.

To illustrate this correlation, here's a 3x NASDAQ Index fund against BTC since Nov 20.

Pretty striking.
So if the NASDAQ and BTC are correlated, perhaps we can use historical stock market data to understand the where markets are headed.

I'm not a macro guy but it doesn't take a genius to interpret some of the data available.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 22
I've been following $SOLID for weeks now, and the Solidly token, previously known as ve(3,3), will finally be live and tradeable in 2 days.

In advance of Andre Cronje's token finally coming to market, I'll give a final price prediction and my positioning into the launch.

🧵
Why am I so bullish on the project?

• Andre Cronje is one of my crypto's most important and experienced devs
• FTM is an undervalued ecosystem
• I think the Curve/$SOLID wars are underhyped
• vested escrow systems (veTokens) create ultra-deflationary supply
If you need to get totally caught up, on Solidly, I'd recommend this article:

avgjoescrypto.substack.com/p/ve33-an-intr…
Read 22 tweets
Feb 21
Russia, the United States, Ukraine, WW3, and Crypto.

Bears vs. Bulls

A megathread.
1st: I know nearly nothing about foreign policy, Russian politics, war, and the intricacies of the Ukraine conflict.

Thus, my duty today will not be SOLELY to present some news and the opinions of others.

And I'll be relating everything back to crypto.

We'll begin with...
1. THE BEAR CASE

tl;dr: WW3 is bad for the economy
Read 20 tweets

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