So, the vaunted 58k+ figures for PCR testing surge capacity depended on pooling. And pooling depends on relatively low positivity rates. And positivity rates are high during outbreaks when testing surges. QED, the surge capacity never existed. #nzpol
ondemand.parliament.nz/parliament-tv-…
And the gaslighting continues... there are PCR samples that're too old to generate meaningful results but @drayeshaverrall keeps talking about "working through the backlog" and says "I have not been advised" when asked about sample binning.
This is "sample binning". The sample spoiled because it hadn't been processed after 9 days.
The MOH knows the number of days within which a sample needs to be processed to generate a reliable result. They knew they were getting samples in faster than they could process them and that binning would result.
Their reaction was to finally start using RATs (good) but to not be up front about why they were doing so (bad). They were forced to do so because sample binning was going to get too big to hide despite testing levels well below their impossible "surge capacity" claims.
And those aged-out samples that did occur? They message the potential sick individuals nine days later that their sample has spoiled and gaslight parliament with stories of still working through a backlog (much of which is now too old to be worth doing).

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More from @camrynpetebrown

Mar 2
Some say explaining is losing? I'm willing to risk it. Here's my mental model of how governments influence whether protests are more or less likely to happen and why I think Luxon was using the same model in his "Divided Nation" speech. #nzpol
1. Across any population, there is always a range of feelings towards government actions
2. This range of feelings follows a normal distribution - most individuals have nearly-average feelings but a few have extreme feelings Image
3. Feelings are what motivate individual reactions to a government action
4. At the extremes, these reactions may be socially unacceptable (although individuals always remain responsible for their reactions as they can choose whether to act on their feelings and how)
Read 11 tweets
Mar 1
My rule of thumb is that Australia is similar to NZ on Omicron but 50 days ahead. Their highest ever day for new cases was 151k on 13-Jan. In NZ terms, that'd be 30k on 4-Mar. We're not forecast to exceed 30k until 8-Mar with a peak of 34k a few days later. #nzpol #covid19nz
With a similar population profile (in terms of vaccination, prior exposure, etc) & other factors (weather, isolation rules, etc) their hospitals held up. Maybe we are gonna go a little higher & our health system is a little weaker but Oz broadly indicates we shouldn't collapse.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 16, 2021
If I had arranged for Parliamentary Services to hire my good friend, I simply wouldn't ask that friend to plan my wedding because the risk of spending public money on myself would be too high. /1 #nzpol
To be clear, I have no issue with Parliamentary Services hiring party activists to work in MP's offices. An MP needs to trust their staff. /2
It just seems obvious you don't then go blurring lines by giving that person a mix of public, party, and/or private work *unless* you're happy to show how you've kept it all above board. /3
Read 4 tweets
Oct 15, 2021
It seems to me that the proposed traffic light system is about having fewer tools across a less optimistic range of outcomes... and making it as unclear as possible that that's what is happening. #nzpol #covid19nz #lockdownnz
Due to variations in definitions and practices over time, and the traffic light system being under development, this chart is intended as merely conceptual.
Or reflection the boundaries between the traffic light colours need to be at least 45 degrees. Any other suggestions for version 2?
Read 4 tweets

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