Some say explaining is losing? I'm willing to risk it. Here's my mental model of how governments influence whether protests are more or less likely to happen and why I think Luxon was using the same model in his "Divided Nation" speech. #nzpol
1. Across any population, there is always a range of feelings towards government actions
2. This range of feelings follows a normal distribution - most individuals have nearly-average feelings but a few have extreme feelings
2. This range of feelings follows a normal distribution - most individuals have nearly-average feelings but a few have extreme feelings
3. Feelings are what motivate individual reactions to a government action
4. At the extremes, these reactions may be socially unacceptable (although individuals always remain responsible for their reactions as they can choose whether to act on their feelings and how)
4. At the extremes, these reactions may be socially unacceptable (although individuals always remain responsible for their reactions as they can choose whether to act on their feelings and how)
6. Governments can influence how likely unacceptable social reactions are in two ways
7. First, by simply doing a worse job - the less optimal a government action is perceived to be, the more likely extreme reactions are to occur
7. First, by simply doing a worse job - the less optimal a government action is perceived to be, the more likely extreme reactions are to occur
8. The normal distribution of feelings shifts towards an extreme and more individuals have feelings that have the potential to motivate a socially unacceptable reaction
9. Second, by being more divisive or less inclusive - the more divisive a government action is perceived to be, the more likely extreme reactions are to occur
10. The normal distribution of feelings flattens and more individuals have feelings that have the potential to motivate a socially unacceptable reaction
11. This was the core point of the “Divided Nation” speech IMO – that govt actions on mandates had been excessively divisive (poor management of changing justifications) and somewhat suboptimal (inconsistent) and that the socially unacceptable protests were evidence of this
12. Again, IMO, Luxon was not saying that others felt the same as the protesters, he was pointing out that extreme reactions can only occur when the overall range of feelings shifts or spreads into extremes and was expressing concern over that
13. Note that this model explains why the protests were comprised of individuals with radically different backgrounds and perspectives – individuals were motivated to socially unacceptable reactions at both extremes of the spectrum because the range was so wide
14. Put another way, we can infer from the presence of both extremes that divisiveness of government action was a bigger driver than government action being less than optimal
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