Thread. Latest military situation in Ukraine

Russian units captured the first regional capital and are advancing towards Slovyansk from the west.

Ukrainian forces recaptured a town near Kyiv but Donbas, and mainly Mariupol, is approaching a critical stage.
Southern front

In Kherson area, soon after the midnight (Kyiv time), Russian forces captured the Kherson city hall and announced the capture of the city. It's the first regional capital captured by the Russian side.
Russian troops landed near Mykolaiv, but were eliminated or captured by Ukrainian forces.

Apart from sporadic shelling, there was no attack on the city itself. The spearheading element still roams in the north of the city, the location is unknown at the moment.
In Tokmak area, Russian forces seized Kamianska-Dniprovska and Vasylivka.

Ukrainian forces blew up a railway bridge in Vasylivka yesterday, which complicates the Russian advance to the north.
Local Ukrainian self-defense force guards Enerhodar, but there is no military presence, and they are encircled by Russians.
Northern frontline

In Kyiv area, Ukraine's 14th Mechanized Brigade and 95th AirAssault Brigade liberated the town of Makariv near Kyiv.

The huge Russian column hasn’t reached its destination yet.
No changes in Chernihiv area; Ukrainian forces continue to defend the area.

In Ichnia area, Ukrainian units ambushed Russian convoy near Kruty and destroyed several vehicles. Russian forces claim they reached the outskirts of Brovary, but no confirmation yet.
Eastern frontline

Ukrainian defense line are still holding in Sumy area. There are most likely some Russian units moving around the region, but there is no footage available.
Ukrainian self-defense force in Konotop received a warning that either they surrender or the town will be leveled.
Kharkiv's centre was shelled today and countless buildings are heavy damaged.

The Russian spearheading force flanked to the east, seized Balakliia and reportedly moving towards Izium.
If Ukrainian forces won’t stop Russian spearheading force near Izium, they might soon reach Sloviansk and cause a lot of problems for the forces in Donbas.
Donbas frontline

In Luhansk area, Russian forces claim they reached Svatove, connected with the forces in the north, and encircled remaining Ukrainian forces near Bilovodsk.

No confirmation, it could be a propaganda.
In Donetsk area, Russian forces advanced inside Volnovakha, and captured most of the town.

According to Ukrainian sources, Volnovakha is almost completely destroyed. Ukrainian units lost one BMP-1 and at least one tank during the battle.
And finally, Mariupol.

The city was under heavy shelling all day, but Russian forces haven’t started the assault yet. Massive damage is reported inside the city, including a dozen civilian casualties.

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More from @DrAlakbarov

Mar 3
Thread. Vafa Guluzade, a former national security adviser for Azerbaijan who worked with three of that country’s first presidents.

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Thread. 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine in photos.

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Mar 2
Latest military situation in Ukraine.

The situation is becoming critical in Ukraine's south. Russian Forces entered Kherson and encircled Mariupol. The situation on the other fronts remains rather stable.
Southern front looks like this at the moment.

Russian forces entered Kherson and met only minor resistance. The city was guarded by local Territorial Defense Unit and Ukrainian Army most likely withdrew from the town in the morning.
Russian forces reached the train station inside the city and de-facto gained control of Kherson.

Still no updates from Ukrainian Armed Forces regarding this area.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 2
If Kyiv falls, it is still not clear what Moscow would do with Ukraine.

Splitting up the country is most likely scenario but it comes with its own challenges.
Yes, Russian forces technically can implement a split, but do Russia has the capacity and wherewithal to enforce it beyond the short run, given Russian Armed Forces arrayed at this point?
The huge challenge for Russia is having in suppressing resistance in/around cities like Kharkiv.

A split – possibly along the Dniepr River – remains a possibility,
Read 4 tweets

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