Thread. Vafa Guluzade, a former national security adviser for Azerbaijan who worked with three of that country’s first presidents.
He was considered a tough and stubborn negotiator, and he held strong opinions on a number of issues, especially on the Kremlin. #Ukraine
Guluzade was widely respected for his principled positions and dignified demeanor.
In 2014, he gave an interview to Radio Liberty on Russia and Ukraine so I've decided to post some interesting bits from it since it touches a lot of stuff on Ukraine and Russia.
Vafa Guluzade:
"Azerbaijanis in general and, I am sure, the authorities also have sympathy for Ukraine and want it to be an independent state, not a vassal territory of Russia."
"As part of the CIS, at all the summits in which I took part, Ukraine has always rescued other independent republics from preventing Russia from creating supranational structures."
"If Ukraine falls now, then Azerbaijan, Georgia will fall next. I'm also not talking about Armenia - it is became like a province of Russia; Russian military bases are located on its territory, etc."
"The same thing will happen with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan - everywhere there is a Russian-speaking population."
"At any moment, the President of Russia can announce that the Russian-speaking population of Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan needs help, they are offended there, and he is going to send troops there."
"It feels like that Russia wants to restore the USSR and create the situation like it was in 1920."
"In 1920, after the end of the Civil War, Soviet Russia sent troops into the Transcaucasian republics, and also started a war in Central Asia, which lasted quite a long time, as it conquered all these territories, and once again restored the empire of Russian czars."
"It can be seen that now Vladimir Putin is striving to restore the empire of the Soviet Union."
"There are rumors that he [Vladimir Putin] is a land collector, that the collapse of the Russian Federation is a catastrophe for him, i.e. he already exposes himself as some kind of extraordinary figure - the arbiter of destinies."
"In fact, he does what Hitler did before World War II. He was a collector of lands, a unifier of all Germans, and sent troops wherever he wanted, while Europe endured all of this."
"Only one thing can affect these [Russian-Ukrainian] relations: if Putin is put in his place, forced to withdraw his troops from Crimea and leave Ukraine alone."
"As a last resort, by economic, political, diplomatic sanctions, as well as by deploying military force, to ensure that this regime falls."
"The role of Moscow is extremely negative throughout the post-Soviet space."
"Therefore, the fate of all former Soviet republics depends on how things go in the issue of suppressing Ukraine and how the West can support Ukraine."
The full interview is in Russian and can be found here:
Russian forces appeared to be moving to cut Ukraine off from the sea via its key southern ports.
Kherson is under Russian control, the siege of Mariupol on its way, as a large amphibious taskforce threatened Odessa to the west.
Cutting Ukraine’s access to its coast would deal a significant blow to the country’s economy and allow Russian forces to build a land corridor stretching from its border, across Crimea, which has been under Russian control since 2014, and all the way west to Romania.
Another key target for Russian forces in the south east is the Zaporizhzhia and its nuclear power plant in south-eastern Ukraine, Europe’s biggest, where Russian units were trying to break through a barricade to the plant erected by local residents and territorial defence forces.
List of prominent Russian and Belarusian figures that spoke against the war in Ukraine. This is not a complete list but still interesting:
* 🇷🇺 Semyon Slepakov, actor
* 🇷🇺 Yury Dud, journalist and blogger
* 🇷🇺 Zemfira, rock singer
* 🇷🇺🇬🇧 Oxxxymiron, rapper
* 🇷🇺 Boris Akunin, writer
* 🇷🇺 Danila Poperechny, comedian
* 🇷🇺 Dmitry Muratov, journalist and editor
* 🇷🇺 Leonid Barats, actor
* 🇷🇺 Morgenshtern, rapper
* 🇷🇺 Sergey Lazarev, pop singer
* 🇷🇺 Valery Meladze, pop singer
* 🇷🇺🇮🇱 Ivan Urgant, TV presenter
* 🇷🇺🇨🇾 Maxim Galkin, comedian
* 🇷🇺 Aleksandr Gudkov, showman
* 🇷🇺 Aleksandr Molochnikov, actor
* 🇷🇺 Leonid Parfyonov, journalist
* 🇷🇺 Kantemir Balagov, film director
* 🇷🇺 Kseniya Rappoport, actress
* 🇷🇺 Manizha, pop singer
* 🇷🇺 Nastya Ivleeva, TV presenter and blogger
* 🇷🇺 Vera Polozkova, poet
Russian units captured the first regional capital and are advancing towards Slovyansk from the west.
Ukrainian forces recaptured a town near Kyiv but Donbas, and mainly Mariupol, is approaching a critical stage.
Southern front
In Kherson area, soon after the midnight (Kyiv time), Russian forces captured the Kherson city hall and announced the capture of the city. It's the first regional capital captured by the Russian side.
Russian troops landed near Mykolaiv, but were eliminated or captured by Ukrainian forces.
Apart from sporadic shelling, there was no attack on the city itself. The spearheading element still roams in the north of the city, the location is unknown at the moment.
The situation is becoming critical in Ukraine's south. Russian Forces entered Kherson and encircled Mariupol. The situation on the other fronts remains rather stable.
Southern front looks like this at the moment.
Russian forces entered Kherson and met only minor resistance. The city was guarded by local Territorial Defense Unit and Ukrainian Army most likely withdrew from the town in the morning.
Russian forces reached the train station inside the city and de-facto gained control of Kherson.
Still no updates from Ukrainian Armed Forces regarding this area.
If Kyiv falls, it is still not clear what Moscow would do with Ukraine.
Splitting up the country is most likely scenario but it comes with its own challenges.
Yes, Russian forces technically can implement a split, but do Russia has the capacity and wherewithal to enforce it beyond the short run, given Russian Armed Forces arrayed at this point?
The huge challenge for Russia is having in suppressing resistance in/around cities like Kharkiv.
A split – possibly along the Dniepr River – remains a possibility,