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Mar 3 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
SOLIDLY WARS

THREAD OF THREADS

Thanks to @coincatchers for putting this together, great guy, give him a follow.

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More from @JackNiewold

Jack Niewold Profile picture
Mar 4
THE SOLIDLY ENDGAME:

But with a nasty price drop over the last 36 hours, a missing founder, and inflation fears around the project what's next?

๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
I'm going to assume you already know what Solidly is, more or less.

But the basics are:

$SOLID is an exchange similar to Curve with both stable and volatile swaps.

Value comes via the ability to direct token emissions, incentivize emissions and trading fees earned.
But $SOLID token price has collapsed: I think there are 3 main reasons.

1. Token inflation:

While investors originally thought that rewards would be strong for about a year, it turns out that Andre Cronje coded $SOLID so that emissions drop drastically after just 10 weeks.
Read 22 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
Mar 2
VeDAO has been playing 4D chess while the rest of us are just out here playing Solidly checkers.

These guys are the gigabrain hedge fund of the Solidly Wars.

Another $SOLID emergency thread; let me explain:

๐Ÿงต ๐Ÿ‘‡
If you're unfamiliar with what's going on, just think of Solidly as similar to $CRV and $SEX/$OXD as trying to compete against each other to become $CVX.
So VeDAO managed to secure enough TVL early on to get airdropped $SOLID tokens, starting out with approximately 5.3% of supply.

They locked with Solidex, allowing them to boost rewards, get control over Solidex tokens, get control over emissions, and farm lots of tokens.
Read 11 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
Mar 1
The Solidly Wars have played out in phases:

Understand these quick narrative rotations and you will be able to stay on the gravy train.

Stay stuck and you will fall off.
1. Positioning around allocations

The best plays promised cheap exposure to $SOLID

In this phase microcaps with token allocations pumped:

$PILLS pumped from $1 to nearly $3
Iron Bank pumped from $30 to $200
2. Positioning around Control

Phase two happened immediately post-launch. Instead of owning exposure indirectly, now you could actually own voting rights and tokens.

The best plays were $SOLID, which went from $3 to $15

And $SEX, which went from $3 to $35.
Read 8 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
Feb 28
Okay emergency $SOLID thread alert, this is too good.

The Solidly Wars are here, this is the narrative you need to be following, I'm so sure of it.

๐Ÿงต
1. A whale just printed a god candle on $SEX, with two separate $650k buys in the span of a few minutes. Image
2. It's looking like there was a coding error that has lead to over-inflation in the first few weeks of Solidly emissions, leading to emissions being way front-weighted.

Read 11 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
Feb 26
TRANSPARENCY TIME:

I make mistakes in my crypto investing at many times a day.

Here is a list of my biggest regrets in crypto investing: the mistakes that have cost me the most money.

๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
1. Anchor Bias

Like a lot of you, Iโ€™ve had a round-number portfolio goal in mind for a while.

In December, I got within a few percent, then it fell apart.

Instead of getting back to sound principles and high-conviction positions or stable yields, I went full degen.
This error is called anchor bias, where we focus on a specific reference point instead of reality.

I went to small caps and risk-on plays to โ€˜make it upโ€™ and then got more rekt than Iโ€™d like to admit.

The only number that matters is the current one: everything else is made up.
Read 14 tweets
Jack Niewold Profile picture
Feb 25
I haven't attempted to call the bottom of the pullback until now, but I'm a buyer here.

Why?

Shots fired have historically signaled a market bottom.

A ๐Ÿงต on my mid-term macro thesis ๐Ÿ‘‡:
Firstly, it's important to recognize how correlated BTC and the NASDAQ have been over the last few months, although BTC is much more volatile.

To illustrate this correlation, here's a 3x NASDAQ Index fund against BTC since Nov 20.

Pretty striking.
So if the NASDAQ and BTC are correlated, perhaps we can use historical stock market data to understand the where markets are headed.

I'm not a macro guy but it doesn't take a genius to interpret some of the data available.
Read 11 tweets

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