A Thread on Risk Management and Art of Position Sizing 🧵
⏺️A part of Risk Management that could make or
break your trading career
⏺️Position sizing refers to the number of units an
investor or trader invests in a particular security.
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Determining appropriate position sizing requires
an investor to consider their risk tolerance and
the size of the account.
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POSITION SIZING :
In simple Language how much Percentage of your Portfolio you should invest in a particular Script .
This is very important factor that changes your returns drastically .
There are rules to be followed
Either Fix Risk per Trade
Or Capital Allocation
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Let's take an example
WHEN RISK PER TRADE IS FIXED :
TOTAL CAPITAL = 1,00,000 Rs
RISK PER TRADE = 0.5% OF TOTAL CAPITAL
(this could vary from 1-2%)
RISK PER TRADE = 500 Rs
Now stock Price = 100
Stop loss = 96 Rs
Risk per single Stock = 4 Rs
Total Risk per Trade = 500 4/n
UANTITY = RISK PER TRADE/ RISK PER SINGLE STOCK
Quantity = 500/4 = 125
In this case Now Capital allocation is
125×100 = 12500
In such Cases your capital allocation
Will keep on changing for every traded depending upon your stopnloss % of that particular stock
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WHEN CAPITAL ALLOCATION IS FIXED :
General Stock Allocation = 7%
No of Stocks to hold max = 12
Cash to Be held Everytime = 15%
(General Rule , you can change according to your risk)
Now stock Price = 100
Stop loss = 96 Rs
Risk per single Stock = 4 Rs
7000÷100 = 70 Qty
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In this case you loose max
70×4 = 280 Rs
During Capital Allocation fixation
The stop loss amount keep on changing depending upon the particular stock.
You can make fix Rule of max 10% stop loss per trade to keep losses minimum.
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Working On ideal Position Sizing Is important
Why?
10% Move and 10% Position moves your Pf up 1%
10% Move And 20% Position moves Your Pf up 2%
10% Move and 2% Positon
Moves your Pf 0.4%
Moves are not Important
Correct Pf allocation is Imp
Dont overleverage/underbuy
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2 golden rules of trading -
1. You cant be right all the time. Only markets & God can be.
2. Even if you are right 50% of the time, you can still win if you follow right risk reward & position sizing
How to use Top Down Approach for Stock Selection ?
Concept : Relative Strength
Weak Vs Strong Sectoral Analysis
Weak Vs Strong Stock Analysis
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Step 1 : Choose the Strongest Sector
Use The concept of Relative Strength to identify Strong Sector .
Example Comparing Auto Vs Nifty
Here we can See the 65 RS line is Positive and Increasing meaning A outperformance of AUTO index 2/n
How to use HEIKINASHI CANDLESTICK Charts ?
Trading Strategy and Its Rules
A thread 🧵
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What is Heikin Ashi? 1. Heikin-Ashi, also called Heiken-Ashi, is translated as an "average bar" in Japanese. 2. The Heikin Ashi strategy is a useful tool used in identifying market trends and
predicting the future prices of assets.
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3. The Heikin Ashi can be used alone or in conjunction with candlestick charts. 4. These charts can be very useful as they make it easier to read candlestick charts
and analyze market trends , without noise 3/n
About Darvas :
In the late 1950s, Nicolas Darvas was one half of the highest paid dance team in show business.
Darvas turned a $36,000 investment into more than $2.25 million in a three-year period.
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It was on a two-year tour of the world that he initially developed his ‘Darvas Box’ method of screening stocks – a method of picking stocks based on the stock’s price and volume .
1. Avoid Stocks Below 200 ema 2. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend 3. Dont Trade Stocks that are moving in Circuits 4. Avoid News based Trading
A thread With examples
Retweet to Educate
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A Study Shows that 90% of the winning Stocks stay above 200 ema before a big Advancing Phase
1. Simply Not Holding or Buying Stocks below 200 ema Saves a lot of time and Money. 2. You can looses opportunity Cost if you buy stocks below 200 ema. 3. TimeFrame: Daily 200 ema
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B. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend
1. Stocks Exhibiting this are in complete Bear Grip 2. The 30 week ema acts as reference for stage analysis 3. These Stocks can be short sold on pullback to 30wema 4. Happens after Topping Phase 5. TimeFrame : Weekly , 30 Week Ema
What is Breakout ?
A breakout is a stock price moving outside a defined support or resistance level with increased volume.
Always trade breakouts in uptrend for high win ratios
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What to Look before entering a breakout ?
Look for Volume Spikes on Up days and Down Volume on down days.
Simply Volume Should Dry during Pullbacks
This is a sign of Accumulation by Bigger Sharks.
As they buy in huge quantities they have to buy in parts to avoid price spikes 2/n
They dont only buy on Uptrend but continue holding during pullbacks for bigger gains .
Important thing is pullbacks should always have less volumes . 3/n