Does China have a clear economic incentive to get the Russians out of Ukraine and get some sort of settlement? Building on this earlier thread and then examining a must-read @ForeignPolicy piece on the #geoeconomic dynamic. 1/
https://twitter.com/FPRI_Orbis/status/1499069266204712965
China's land transport corridor across Eurasia is imperiled, both by the war and by sanctions. @Andreebrin of the @RISAPOfficial notes, "Poland is home to train routes connecting China to Europe along the New Eurasian Land Bridge. 2/
This railway corridor that crosses all of Eurasia—running through Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus—has become an important branch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), dubbed the iron silk road." 3/ foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/01/bel…
She spells out in detail how China increasingly is relying on the iron silk road for exports, problems with the maritime domain, and how sanctions on Russia and effectively cutting off Russia from the global economy has major impacts for China and will impact its own growth, 4/
in a year when Xi Jinping was hoping to highlight China's return to economic vibrancy. Her conclusion: "This butterfly effect connecting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China could soon prove disastrous for China’s BRI railways and economy. 5/
Putin may not only kill, for the moment, Poland’s dream of becoming a commercial hub between China and Europe, but he may also destabilize what was once one of China’s most successful BRI projects: the New Eurasian Land Bridge, which is now passing near a war zone." So does 6/
incentivize China to take steps to end the war and find a way to reverse sanctions on Russia? END
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
