Thread by @samagreene

Vladimir Putin is increasingly fighting two wars: one in Ukraine, and one at home.

A week in, neither is going terribly well.

(A 🧵, in case that wasn't obvious.)

A summary of key points follow below. For the full story in a less cacophonous setting, see the latest TL;DRussia, which dropped yesterday. (And subscribe -- it's free!)

tldrussia.substack.com/p/home-to-roost

First, as @LawDavF has explained, Russia's invasion isn't going according to plan, and while Russia can still achieve its military objectives, it will come at an increasing cost.

samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan…

The recognition that this war would be unpopular was the key factor determining Russia’s opening gambit. The only way to mitigate that risk was to win the war as cleanly and quickly as possible. That is now no longer an option.

Second, sanctions were an inevitable result of this invasion. Putin knew that, and in this case, we don’t have to read his mind: he talked about it in his speeches leading up to the war. Russia, with its vaunted $640 billion in reserves, was prepared, Putin said. He was wrong.

We've all seen pix of queues at ATMs, but the real pain is yet to come. The most ominous sign may be Nabiullina's address to @cbr_rates employees, imploring them to stop “bickering about politics” and focus on preventing wholesale economic catastrophe.

If you speak Russian, I highly recommend this @tvrain interview with Natalia Zubarevich for a sense of the pain to come.

tvrain.ru/teleshow/veche…

Third, there have been anti-war protests in dozens of Russian cities every day since this war began. We don’t and can’t know how many people have participated, but we do know that more than 7,600 have been arrested since February 24th.

Again if you read Russian (or know how to use Google Translate), I highly recommend this @meduzaproject interview with sociologist Greg Yudin on the prospects and challenges of Russia's anti-war movement.

meduza.io/feature/2022/0…

More to the point, there have been no pro-war rallies, despite the Kremlin’s usual penchant for astroturf.

The real problem for Putin is that the people who are out on the streets protesting against the war are the usual suspects. It will get worse if — when — the people queueing at the ATM turn the (metaphorical) corner and join the protests.

I'll follow up on various aspects of this in future TL;DRussia posts and threads, but here's the key point for now: Putin is fighting a rear-guard action to prevent the economy and the war from spilling over into the minds of too many ordinary Russians.

While media coverage of the war itself appears to be ramping up — after a few days in which it was almost not discussed — Russian media are under strict orders to quote only official sources and to avoid using the words “war” or “invasion”.

Russian legislators are reportedly preparing further restrictions, including jail sentences of up to 15 years for distributing whatever the state believes is “fake news” about the war.

fontanka.ru/2022/03/02/704…

Roskomnadzor has liquidated @EchoMskNews, blocked online access to @tvrain, and made it difficult for Russians to access Facebook and Twitter. YouTube and @meduzaproject are assumed to be next on the list.

Russia’s Investigative Committee has launched a special unit to prevent anti-war mobilization.

ovd.news/express-news/2…

And border guards are reportedly questioning young Russian men boarding Russia’s few remaining international flights.

zona.media/article/2022/0…

It is early days yet, but it doesn’t feel to me that Putin’s war with Russia is going much better than his war with Ukraine.

As always, for updates and analysis on the war itself stick with the people who know what they're talking about, including @KofmanMichael, @RALee85 and @LawDavF. And for developments in Ukraine, follow Ukraine specialists, not Russia specialists:

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1497208222285013005

For more context on where Putin's been and where he may be going, check out this interview with @MarcoWerman for @TheWorld... theworld.org/media/2022-02-…

... and this discussion with Rod Lyne, @melindaharing and @GWhittell for @tortoise.

And I learned a lot from this @ASN_Org discussion yesterday with Marlene Laruelle, @tanyalokot, Keith Darden and @darelasn. Hopefully you will, too.

facebook.com/watch/?v=36101…

As always, more later.