Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Mar 3 14 tweets 2 min read
A Thursday background briefing at the Pentagon about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Notable updates:
Pentagon acknowledges "heavy bombardment" by Russia of numerous cities. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol, etc.

Mariupol is still in Ukrainian government control.

Russians are now "just outside" Kharkiv.
There is a “clear willingness” to hit Ukrainian civilian targets, including government infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv, senior defense official says.

That amid obvious verified of attacks circulating on social media.
A senior U.S. defense official says that 90 percent of Russia’s combat power pre-staged at the Ukrainian border is now in Ukraine.

That’s up from about 82 percent Wednesday, 80 percent Tuesday, and about 75 percent Monday.
Russia has now launched more than 480 missiles at Ukraine in the invasion, senior defense official says. That’s up from 450 Thursday.

The Pentagon, w/ limited visibility of the battlefield, is not confirming whether cluster or thermobaric munitions are being used by Russia.
No Russian cruise missiles launched in last few days, after a salvo early in the invasion. Other options available now, obviously.
New detail: Pentagon assesses that the majority of those missiles launched at Ukraine have come from Russian units inside Ukraine. More than 230 of the 480 missiles launched overall, official says. More than 160 launched from Russia. 70+ from Belarus. About 10 from the sea.
Ukraine remains armed with small arms, Javelins, anti-tank weapons and air defense weapons.

Pentagon has no indications that Ukraine has laid IEDs to stop Russian troops, senior defense official says. That’s something that some American lawmakers have advocated.
Russian advances in south appear most pronounced. It’s possible they could move on Mykolaiv, a city of more than 470,000, senior defense official says.

Doing so could assist in positioning Russians to take the port city of Odessa (Watch for amphibious operations there, too).
Ukrainian officials said earlier today they were moving to "counter-offensive." Senior defense official says that in general, that would indicate an effort to go after the enemy's resources.
President Zelensky still has command of Ukrainian forces, the senior defense official says.

The Pentagon sees it as “incredibly noteworthy” and commends his bravery.
Ukrainian airspace remains contested, senior U.S. defense official says.

He attributes Russia's inability to take the skies over to both creative Ukrainian defenses and "Russian misapplication" of their resources and a risk aversion to losing Russian assets.
Russia having fewer logistical problems in the south, where they can draw on resources in Crimea, senior U.S. defense official says.
On nuclear issues, no major changes.

"It's still not completely clear to us what that direction meant," senior U.S. defense official says of Putin alerting nuke forces. "We continue to watch this very, very closely as you might imagine."

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 4
A Friday background briefing with senior U.S. defense officials about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Some takeaways worth noting:
Ninety-two percent of Russia’s combat power assembled at the Ukrainian border pre-invasion is now in Ukraine. That’s up from about 90 percent in a Pentagon assessment yesterday.
Strikingly, Ukraine has a “significant majority” of its aircraft still available against Russia after nine days of invasion, senior U.S. defense official says. For days, U.S. has said the airspace was contested.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 1
At the Pentagon, a Tuesday morning background briefing about the war in Ukraine with a senior U.S. defense official has concluded. Important updates:
The 40 mile-long column of Russian tanks and combat vehicles that has been spotted in satellite imagery has “stalled” north of Kyiv, the senior U.S. defense official said. Several possible reasons for it, and it could be more than one of them.
There are indications that Russian forces are "regrouping" after their haphazard operation so far hasn't yielded the results they expected. They continue to deal with fuel shortages, and the senior U.S. defense official said food shortages have come up, too.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 28
Monday morning Pentagon background briefing on the war in Ukraine now concluded. Some noteworthy details on what is Day 5 since Russia's invasion to follow:
On Sunday, a senior U.S. defense official said that Russia appeared to adapting siege tactics on the northern city of Chernihiv. Today that official adds it appears similar tactics are in use in the northeastern city of Kharkiv, something that matches visuals widely available.
The senior U.S. official also says it appear that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Kyiv, raising concerns siege tactics could be used there, too.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 27
Sunday background briefing with senior U.S. defense official winding down.

Up front, official acknowledges reports that Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert and said that it is “not only an unnecessary step for him to take, but an escalatory one.”
Senior U.S. defense official says that Russia continues to face stiff resistance on its advances. Also says Russia is struggling with fuel and logistical issues. Still no indications that Russia has taken control of any major cities, U.S. official says.
Significant: Russia has now adopted siege tactics on the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, senior U.S. defense official says. That significantly elevates the likelihood of civilian casualties there.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 26
A Saturday morning background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine just concluded.

First takeaway: Russian reconnaissance troops are now in and near Kyiv, the capital, even as main Russian advanced is about 30 kilometers north, official said.
The official declined to say whether these forces are Spetsnaz. By virtue of their role, they'd attempt to prep the battlefield for further advancement.

That said: Stiff resistance remains. Russian forces are “increasingly frustrated” by their lack of momentum, official says.
Airspace over Ukraine remains contested, U.S. official says, in contradiction to expectations before the invasion that Russia would quickly seize control of the skies.

Ukrainian jets and air-defense systems are active and continue to “engage and deny," U.S. official says.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 25
Out of a background briefing this morning with a senior U.S. defense official. Notable updates about the war in Ukraine:
A couple things going on here. First, Russia is getting more resistance that it expected, senior defense official says. He cites resistance around Kyiv in particular.
Russia also has not established air superiority over Ukraine, as U.S. officials had predicted was likely before this invasion began. Instead, the air space is contested, with some Ukrainian air defenses (surface-to-air missiles) still available and Ukrainian jets flying sorties.
Read 8 tweets

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