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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 3 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The timing of this is potentially the important thing. The suspicion has been that such real time intelligence has been provided since at least the start of the invasion. Makes sense considering the damage that the Ukrainians seem to be doing behind Russian lines
So why let it out officially now? Maybe a response to Putin’s maximalist demands and as a way to ratchet up the amount of open intervention for the Ukrainians. This is not boots on the ground or a no-fly zone.
But potentially more advanced systems than we have expected, more offensive cyber, or the like. Slowly pushing back red lines.
Things might be about to escalate. Not happy times
Speaking about NATO setting the stage for possible escalation…
And a no fly zone is much more than I imagined. Though of course this could all be an attempt to apply pressure.
Now this is the kind of NATO escalation that would be expected, and could make a significant difference.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 5
A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics. @BoringWar
The Russian Army, like the Soviet Army before it, has manifested significant logistics problems for decades, and if anything the preliminary evidence is that the problem might be worse than expected. You can start with this report. apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/…
Basically Soviet logistics as shown in Afghanistan were too rigid, top heavy and wedded to doctrine. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. The way Soviet logistics was so road centric (and weak for that) is telling Image
Read 19 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 5
Another aspect of Ukrainian defense that will be studies is their rapid reaction forces. From the moment they reacted so quickly and effectively to the Russian paratroop assault on Antonov Airport, they’ve shown a remarkable ability to respond to Russian moves.
One imagines that this could only have happened because of detailed and intelligent prewar planning.
Doubly impressive because the assumption was that the Russians would have control of the air and be able to inderdict a lot of Ukrainian military movement.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 4
I’ve never stressed the Putin-Hitler comparison on crimes because I think comparing anyone to Hitler makes little sense considering the Holocaust and Hitler’s unique evil. However in the last 24 hours, if stories are too be believed, the comparison is becoming more valid.
Starting with having his army attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility.
If god forbid there was a melt down there, it would poison Ukraine, Belarus and large parts of western Russia, and send a nuclear cloud that would dwarf anything we have seen on earth before. The idea of millions being killed by cancer early would be very possible.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 3
A short thread on how war reporting can still be rather 19th century, and focused on winning battles and missing the winning of wars. To start the headlines of the New York Times this morning about Kherson
The fact that Khorsen has been occupied (temporarily) by Russian forces will make little or no difference to the outcome of the war. Indeed the description of what is happening around Khorsen reveals the bankruptcy of Russian strategy.
After a week of fighting and suffering losses that I think we can all say are much heavier than they ever imagined: the Russians have some troops in the centre of Ukraine’s 15th largest city.
Read 9 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 2
Been trying to get my head around what is happening in the Ukrainian War, as it represents something different than we have seen before. This is my first group of thoughts, so probably deeply flawed, but I think what we are seeing should be called: Semi-Symmetric Warfare.
It’s not a counter insurgency/insurgency war, though it is between what would be thought of as asymmetric forces. However what we seen to be seeing is an effort by the Ukrainians to erase the asymmetry. In many ways very successfully so far.
War has certainly become even more technological in the last century, and that has led to problems that the Russians are experiencing. The most advanced systems are actually very complex. Requiring great expertise, flexibility, advanced training and in some ways decentralisation
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 2
Any map showing Russian control can’t be compiled, because it would be constantly shifting to take in areas maybe 50 metres around Russian military forces. Most other areas would be Ukrainian or at best for the Russians, insecure.
You would think after decades and decades of decolonial, anti-imperialist conflict, we would have internalised this. But looks not.
Someone coming up with a much better attempt to show the reality of what’s going on in Ukraine in a map.
Read 4 tweets

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