1. Russia is clearly resorting to WWII-style tactics. A short thread on what that means for the people of Ukraine and NATO.
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2. The horrific targeting of the nuclear power plant, by Russia, last night, makes clear that the Russians are very much focused on destroying basic infrastructure now -- power, water, etc.
The goal in doing so is to cause mass exodus of refugees. Potentially millions.
The goal in doing so is to cause mass exodus of refugees. Potentially millions.
3. The refugee crisis they bring will be like nothing Europe has seen in decades. The human suffering will be terrible.
On a strategic level, it means Russia can then flatten cities completely. And they will.
On a strategic level, it means Russia can then flatten cities completely. And they will.
4. NATO and the US have done everything possible to avoid getting directly involved in this war. That was the right thing to do.
But the way things are trending, it may not be long before the people of Eastern and Western NATO members demand we "do something."
But the way things are trending, it may not be long before the people of Eastern and Western NATO members demand we "do something."
5. What form that action will take will depend on the situation on the ground. But the humanitarian disaster, with the mass destruction, and the growing existential threat to our Eastern European allies will become too great. And sending in arms will no longer stop it.
6. This isn't a thread to advocate war. More, it is observing what it unfolding and where it may go. In many ways, Putin is in the driver's seat. If he wants war with the west, he'll keep doing what he's doing. If he wants to avoid that horribly costly war, he'll stop.
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