Thread by @Richard_Florida

1. Much has been made of rising crime and so-called urban disorder in America's cities. But the data is not so clear. While murders are up, overall crime is down. What gives? A new study provides uses intriguing new data to provide some clues.

2. The study by Maxim Massenkoof the
Naval Postgraduate School & Aaron Chalfin of the
University of Pennsylvania uses data on foot traffic data as well as data from thew American Time Use Survey to measure personal exposure risk to violent crime. maximmassenkoff.com/papers/victimi…

3. "Beginning in March 2020, public violence—assaults & robberies occurring in public or commercial spaces—declined by approximately 35% as people responded to disease risk & mandated
lockdowns by spending more time at home." So why does it feel like urban disorder is increasing?

4. To get at this, the study looks at the risks of violent crime people face in cities.

5. The fact of the matter is that fewer people were outside during this people ... "While Americans eventually began to return to many of their normal activities, even at the end of 2020, time spent outdoors
remained about 20% lower than in 2019."

6.The study introduces a measure of the "risk of street crime victimization" - a ratio of violent crimes occurring in public spaces divided public foot traffic.

7. The big takeaways:
The risk of violent victimization rose from 9 to 12 per million outdoor hours in 2020.

8. "The overall risk of outdoor street crime initially rose by more than 40% & was consistently between
10-15% higher than it had been in 2019 through the remainder of the year."

9. The study does not get into the reasons for the increase. But I'd love to hear the authors speculate.