1. I don't completely buy it. And I have long been a work-from-home person. The pandemic had me thinking think more people would stay away from the office, but as things get back to "normal" and open back up, I'm less and less sure. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2. 2. For one, people just seem like they want to get out of their routine. They want to bounce back and re-engage. We saw this first with restaurants, going out, sports & travel ...
3. And I am the one who likes to say "everything city is back - restaurants, sports, theater, arts, nightlife - save for one thing - the office" ... which tells you something about the office ...
4. Look, more people will work remotely, esp those with young kids, and esp households where 2 adults can work remote ... but I think it will be a smaller share than many think.
5. The basic reason is people are social beings. We crave human contact.
6. The weather will get nicer in spring. Folks will see others heading back in. They will try to join remotely. And begin to think - "I need to be there."
7. I can see it in my own work and day-to-day. Zooms are falling off. People are expecting to meet face-to-face, not expecting craving. Zooms are replacing standard phone calls. But Zoom conferences or lectures, far fewer.
8. As this happens, the routine of staying/working from home will start to break down. Little by little, people will start to get back to seeing one another.
9. What I don't think will happen is that people will march back to the old cube farm, and sit at a desk all day long.
10. Offices will have to change, and are changing. They will become much more about socialization & interaction ...
11. And of course third spaces will surge and become better and more work oriented. Some kind of hybrid office-co-working space-cafe ... we can't yet define.
12. And social activities from in-office lectures and exec-ed programs to group fitness classes and wine and cheese parties will tick up ...
13. But it seems to me the great stay-at-home era is just beginning to end ... And not because employers are or will "force" people back to work ...
14. Because people are craving change, and craving more human energy ...
15. Like I said, remote work is here to stay. It will be greater than it was before the pandemic. But as winter turns to spring and spring turns to early summer, I think we'll see more people heading back to some semblance of "old ways."
16. It will be interesting to see what this means for superstar cities, rising cities, suburbs, and esp for downtowns, as well for our day-to-day lives. The next few months will sure be interesting on this front.
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