This week's edit was hell. You wouldn't believe the number of cuts you need to form a cult. And of course it was all loosie-goosie but somehow through it all I managed to frame some trades and provocative conjecture together on the floor of the edit room.
This week I'm mad as hell. Bewildered, traumatised by the human catastrophe in Ukraine, left exasperated by sinister political forces seeking to stymie the advance of the European carbon trading platform to advance their own selfish causes. The planet is under attack everywhere.
Which is long hand for saying that European carbon permit prices have fallen sharply on my watch.
So I man my pulpit. An uncommon occurrence, I proclaim. Rarely can one say that you can do-good and make money. The Carbon Exchange Trading Scheme has pursued truth via the price discovery system. Competing exchanges in America limit speculation, limit truth seeking activities.
The result? The precious resource of the depleted ozone layer trades for just a third of the European scheme. Same atmosphere, different price; denial does that. Truth is always the first victim.
Europe's political class teeter on the brink. States fail when they neglect to replenish their energy supply. Having allowed the region's once mighty energy reserves to dwindle to less than five years' worth, me? the Acid Capitalist, I fear the euro will spiral lower.
Energy? It's always about energy. Why is OPEC not pumping more oil demands my Chief Disciple, @writes_sweeney ? Because we shouldn't equate oil reserves with brains, I snap.
Warming to this subject, I reiterate my belief that the Dawn of Chaos will wipe out ALL dollar pegs, even that of the mighty Arab oil sultans. You see, high oil prices are DEATH to price cartels. Elaboration follows but only on the YouTube copy, the audio files less so
Why is everyone asleep? Time to take the red pills, time to wake up and seize the trading opportunities. Every wannabe hedge should take note. There's work to be done. I declare myself an intellectual psychopath, whatever could I mean? Regardless,I'm not tempted to buy Alibaba
Alibaba, the once mighty Chinese retail platform. China just published its lowest GDP growth estimate and yet all China and value experts can do is mimic monkeys. What do monkeys do? They pick bottoms...For whom the gods would destroy they first make mad. I'm not doing that.
No I'm starting a hedge fund cult. Maybe it's Cotard Syndrome, an uncommon malady were the victims believe they've died and gone to hell. I discus. It seems an apt metaphor for the last week witnessing the Russian advance on Kiev.
Contentious narratives that might form the accepted belief system of the future? Are carbon offsets the blue pills of the dozing masses? Cap and Trade is it a red pill to evade The Matrix and protect the planet's future? All come under the microscope.
There's more pain on the way, more suffering, carbon permits may trade for less than €50, but I can logically assert a value approaching €300 should European winter forward gas prices continue to surge. Imagine, only 5 years supply...Cults were formed on less
So take the reds, reject the blues...The Acid Capitalist loves his night sentinels and is off to bed...
All right, I’m gonna do this for Kiev. Wicked Putin or no Wicked Putin. Guards, tanks, planes, bombs or no guards, tanks, planes, bombs. I’ll tear them apart. I may not come out alive, but I’m going in there. There’s only one thing I want you fellows to do...
Conjecture for eclectica wannabe macro analysts.
Euro Nat Gas Price Structure is All Wrong.
Even tho spot price up lots today and 3x previous winter hi's, its the back-end that ain't right...
That's front month, trading at $62 per million Btu/hour Henry Hub basis which trades < $5...let me say that again, the European power network is similar to the US with both taking c 50% from gas turbine generators except europeans are paying 12x more and this ain't over...
Mar 23 trades higher and much closer to front. That's unusual. Europe needs gas NOW and front winter should operate at huge premiums to bring gas forward. Send me chart of the price compression between Mar 22 and 2023 Mar...I'm guessing the move's been huge. Amaranth teen spirit?
Trip-hopping, Oh Gosh, Oh Gosh I'm Juliette Binoche, the Dice Man vows never to stop throwing.
The child like wonders of curiosity, the Acid Cap was always asking why the sky is blue?
Still furious about environmentalists seeking to prevent all new permitting and exploration for hydrocarbons. Such anarchy is driving energy prices higher. Worse, Europe's profound lack of resources is seeing governments subsidise household energy bills.
You want to join my Eclectica virtual hedge fund game? You bought the NFT yet? Damn I haven't dropped them yet. But this is how it might look in a closed chat environment. Think of this as a trial...
I used to send these thought bubbles to my intel team. I'd examine charts and read all day long. This was before I'd heard of threads and twitter, imagine the fun I could have had back then...
I'd emerge from my dark room with music blasting and reveal what the macro voices in my head were screaming. I'd challenge my intel team to make sense of my exclamations. You want to be my intel team today, right now? You up for that challenge?
At last, the moment has arrived to drop another but very important weekly podcast
#thegreatcarbonswindle
Finance gets a bad rap but I believe we hold the key to improving the global warming crisis. Embrace logic, reject Dadaism before it"s too late. I hope if you feel as strongly as I do that you will encourage others to watch and join a more informed debate
Macro Confessions from somewhere in the future. This week the camera never lies. One moment, I'm trotting out responses under cross-examination from Chris. Ray Dallio, Sure...is he the greatest hedge fund manager ever? What...Blah Blah Blah, I swear I'm gonna hit him, and then..