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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 5 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Oh wow, just saw this tweet. Indications that the Russians could be close to logistic collapse in a few weeks.
If they are already requisitioning civilian vehicles just a week after the fighting started, they are in terrible shape logistically. They might be able to reach Kyiv, but how do they go beyond that?
Ukraine has a clear path to win the war. Go for every Russian truck they can see, especially fuel trucks. Fuel trucks also can’t be replace easily with civilian trucks, so the Russians could be in dire straits soon.
Tbh, if the Russians don’t fix their logistic problem soon. They won’t be able to maintain the campaign, let alone achieve the mythical winning of the war some people have mentioned.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 7
A quick primer on logistics for those who are interested. In the case of war you can think of logistics as a series of interconnected transportation methods to bring important equipment, supplies, personnel from point A to point B.
There are normally 3 means of transport for a large land war such as we are seeing; truck, train and aircraft. For large Russian armies, the interaction of truck and train is usually the most important, which air supply more limited to specialist operations.
By far the most efficient form of movement is rail, which is why it is favoured (all those flat rail cars you seeing carrying heavy vehicles). Trains are therefore the key vehicle to establish the large depots and bases from which the invasion was launched.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 7
Some ideas on the state of the war in Ukraine two weeks in, where it might be headed, and why it remains an unwinnable war for Russia which the Russians would be best to end soon or they face an extraordinarily bleak future. And why this is a lesson on the stupidity of war.
The first thing to see is that for almost a week now, the Russian Army has been almost entirely inert. See the UK MODs maps yesterday and March 2. This is a sign of total strategic failure. March 6 on left March 2 on ...Image
Yes there is the bizarre thin thrust down the roads from Sumy to Kyiv. However that looks more precarious than anything else. And interestingly that has stalled in the last few days (supply issues and Ukrainian resistance one imagines). Its more likely a target than a threat
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 5
A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics. @BoringWar
The Russian Army, like the Soviet Army before it, has manifested significant logistics problems for decades, and if anything the preliminary evidence is that the problem might be worse than expected. You can start with this report. apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/…
Basically Soviet logistics as shown in Afghanistan were too rigid, top heavy and wedded to doctrine. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. The way Soviet logistics was so road centric (and weak for that) is telling Image
Read 34 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 5
Another aspect of Ukrainian defense that will be studies is their rapid reaction forces. From the moment they reacted so quickly and effectively to the Russian paratroop assault on Antonov Airport, they’ve shown a remarkable ability to respond to Russian moves.
One imagines that this could only have happened because of detailed and intelligent prewar planning.
Doubly impressive because the assumption was that the Russians would have control of the air and be able to inderdict a lot of Ukrainian military movement.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 4
I’ve never stressed the Putin-Hitler comparison on crimes because I think comparing anyone to Hitler makes little sense considering the Holocaust and Hitler’s unique evil. However in the last 24 hours, if stories are too be believed, the comparison is becoming more valid.
Starting with having his army attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility.
If god forbid there was a melt down there, it would poison Ukraine, Belarus and large parts of western Russia, and send a nuclear cloud that would dwarf anything we have seen on earth before. The idea of millions being killed by cancer early would be very possible.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 3
The timing of this is potentially the important thing. The suspicion has been that such real time intelligence has been provided since at least the start of the invasion. Makes sense considering the damage that the Ukrainians seem to be doing behind Russian lines
So why let it out officially now? Maybe a response to Putin’s maximalist demands and as a way to ratchet up the amount of open intervention for the Ukrainians. This is not boots on the ground or a no-fly zone.
But potentially more advanced systems than we have expected, more offensive cyber, or the like. Slowly pushing back red lines.
Read 7 tweets

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