Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Some ideas on the state of the war in Ukraine two weeks in, where it might be headed, and why it remains an unwinnable war for Russia which the Russians would be best to end soon or they face an extraordinarily bleak future. And why this is a lesson on the stupidity of war.

The first thing to see is that for almost a week now, the Russian Army has been almost entirely inert. See the UK MODs maps yesterday and March 2. This is a sign of total strategic failure.

Yes there is the bizarre thin thrust down the roads from Sumy to Kyiv. However that looks more precarious than anything else. And interestingly that has stalled in the last few days (supply issues and Ukrainian resistance one imagines). Its more likely a target than a threat

This situation overall is indicative of the logistic failure discussed earlier and the complete failure of Russia's initial strategy. They had no idea what they were about to encounter, underestimated the Ukrainians, and are now trying to make up a strategy as they go along.

There is alot of discussion in the press about the Russians regrouping before another major assault--and they are certainly desperately trying to resupply what they can. thetimes.co.uk/article/putins…

Doing this in the midst of a failed strategy, after significant truck losses and is incredibly difficult. It would be a change from everything we have seen for the Russians to pull it off. Indeed, there are indications they have lost touch with some units.

Even if they do it, and say get many units up to full capacity for attack. In that case they can probably operate for at most a week before they would run out of supplies again. This article implies it might be closer to three days. warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin…

At the same time, the Ukrainian Army is restocking with the exact kind of equipment it needs to stop this new Russian attack. Indeed they now have unprecedented amount of the right equipment.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500678836173869059?s=20&t=aTU2yOtIe0FNUcYm_on4cA

So any Russian forward movement is likely to be extremely costly. Its hard to imagine now any land assault on Kyiv. Would take two to three more resupplies--and there are indications that Russian morale wont tolerate that (and they might be out of trucks then anyway).

If they wanted to take Kyiv we are talking a massive effort for months. They have given no indication that the could carry it off. They would probably have to get working rail lines into Ukraine at this point. It would be a major undertaking.

Instead we are seeing the contours of a new Russian strategy emerging, that holds out only the prospect of bankruptcy and permanent war. They might gear up to take the larger cities of eastern Ukraine (Kharkiv) and try to blow up as much of the rest with missiles and bombs

Not sure what that accomplishes. They would still have to undertake some terrible street by street fighting and if anything stiffen Ukrainian resistance with the indiscriminate attacks.

At the same time the Russian economy will continue its collapse brought on by the sanctions. btw, Fascists like to dress up and look tough, but Fascism only works when you can reward your followers with goodies.

Cant imagine these performance artists will be so demonstrative when the deprivation really hits.

So time is actually on Ukraine's side, not Russia's. If the Russian army cannot be reorganized, resupplied and start moving very soon, its more likely it will not be able to get out of eastern Ukraine, leaving Russia fighting a long-term war it cant win. We should know very soon.

The one hopeful note, which I will expand on later, is that this invasion proves how difficult war is to launch today, even for the larger force, that it might teach other powers that a war is not worth it.