#Moldova: Recently, top Moldovan officials have suggested (indirectly) that there is no risk of a Russian invasion of Moldova. Yesterday, President Sandu declared that Moldova would not get involved in the war in Ukraine (without mentioning Russia at all) because there is⤵️
no risk to Moldova, adding that the country is also neutral. On the lack of war-related risks for Moldova, Romanian President Iohannis opinionated too. Earlier I explained the following: 1) Moldova is already vulnerable in Russia (energy, etc.);⤵️
2) Moscow does not see any strategic threat from Moldova that has constitutional neutrality and is caught in an unresolved Russia-engendered territorial conflict; 3) Russia will increase its influence over Moldova if its scenarios to occupy the Odessa region⤵️
are successful (Kyiv needs support!). The only real major risks faced by Moldova are the energy supply (where Moldova can use the gas stocked in Romania and the reverse supply) and the refugee flow (which may turn into a crisis without massive support from the West).
* vulnerable “to” Russia.
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