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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
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Mar 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Ukraine_Refugees: This post needs important clarifications. The absolute majority of Ukrainian refugees leave or plan to leave Moldova for EU states from Iasi airport in Romania or via land transport. Only ~2,000 people applied for asylum in Moldova.⤵️
The country is a temporary location for an following transfer to the EU.
Unlike the Moldovan destination, the EU states are more tempting for Ukrainian refugees, who will have the right to be hired immediately after arrival in the EU and integrate their children into the educational process in the EU host countries. (Poland, Slovakia and others) .
More refugees are expected as the "green corridor" for the evacuation of Mariupol starts in about 1 hour. It is unclear where the civilians will be transported to the north of the country or to the border with Moldova.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 6
#Moldova: Recently, top Moldovan officials have suggested (indirectly) that there is no risk of a Russian invasion of Moldova. Yesterday, President Sandu declared that Moldova would not get involved in the war in Ukraine (without mentioning Russia at all) because there is⤵️
no risk to Moldova, adding that the country is also neutral. On the lack of war-related risks for Moldova, Romanian President Iohannis opinionated too. Earlier I explained the following: 1) Moldova is already vulnerable in Russia (energy, etc.);⤵️
2) Moscow does not see any strategic threat from Moldova that has constitutional neutrality and is caught in an unresolved Russia-engendered territorial conflict; 3) Russia will increase its influence over Moldova if its scenarios to occupy the Odessa region⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 4
#Moldova: The breakaway region of Moldova opposes the constitutional authorities' decision to apply for EU candidate status. His underlying argument is that Moldova will lose its sovereignty to the West. In real terms, joining the EU implies the delegation of some powers to ⤵️
supranational authorities (the EU institutions). However, this is still a futuristic prospect. However, the separatist regime decided to take advantage of the document presented to the EU, but also the advance of the Russian forces (in Odessa), to put back on the table its ⤵️
demand for recognition of its independence from Moldova. In this sense, they supposedly proposed to Chisinau to sign a "bilateral interstate agreement" that would formalize the separation. The Moldovan authorities were taken by surprise. No response was given to the demands ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 4
#Russia_War: Today, Russian troops will most likely land in Odessa Oblast (Zatoka and Chernomorsk). This information is reported by the Ukrainian side. To do this, Su-24M bombers are used to support the landing from the air. The distance from Zatoka to Odessa is 50-60 km.⤵️
Odessa is the last major port city in southern Ukraine that the Russian aggressor was guarding since 2014. As I wrote before the Russian invasion of Ukraine started (8 days ago), the occupation of the south is a high military priority for Putin. This will allow Donbas to be⤵️
connected by land with Crimea and Odessa with the breakaway region of Moldova. It may also mean the full loss of access to the Black Sea for Ukraine in the short and medium term (during the occupation). The Ukrainian resistance plays a central role.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 3
#Moldova: Under public pressure, the government today decided to apply for EU candidate status. Sandu signed the document. Earlier, the MFA Popescu stated that Moldova will not take advantage of the current situation to apply. Sandu dismissed this as an immediate action during⤵️
the first day of the visit by senior EU officials Borrell and Varhelyi. But the pressure was too high and after Georgia did it, Moldova would be left alone. The problem is that current and future governments will be criticized every time they do not comply with the reforms.
Were it not for the request submitted by Georgia, Moldova would probably hesitate to do so. MFA Popescu rejected this idea just a few days ago. Today, the Moldovan govt. changed its mind and signed the application. ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 2
#Russia_War: Let's take a closer look at the 35 countries that abstained from voting in favor of the UN resolution on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I would like to highlight the following (alphabetically): 1) Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan relies heavily on Russian⤵️
peacekeepers to preserve remaining parts of Nahogorno-Karabakh and ensure strategic balance in talks with Azerbaijan; 2) Central African Republic: Russian mercenaries have been instrumental in the fight against insurgents (to say the least); 3) China -⤵️
Beijing cannot vote on resolutions against Russia with which it is building a strategic partnership against the West, which will be essential for future attempts to take Taiwan by force; 4) Kazakhstan - President Tokayev did not support the aggression against Ukraine,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 1
#Ukraine: The European Parliament adopted a resolution (political document) that included among other aspects a reference to Ukraine's EU candidate status. Indeed, this is something more than just the EU perspective (that was previously demanded). However, after taking a ⤵️
closer look at the resolution, the text looks weaker than we expected. First, the EP uses a very general formulation. It "calls" on all EU institutions to "work to grant" Ukraine candidate status. No sense of urgency. Secondly, the EP does not specify the Council of the EU ⤵️
(national governments) that are crucial in the decision on this matter, as well as the European Commission. Third, the EP invokes the existing procedures (art. 49), without suggesting any new "fast track" procedures, as requested by Zelensky or suggested by Poland and Slovakia.⤵️
Read 8 tweets

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