If the reports about talks between the @NicolasMaduro regime and #US officials are to be believed, the @JoeBiden admin is discussing relaxing sanctions on #PDVSA to increase oil production and attempt to isolate #Russia. This would be a strategic blunder and unlikely to work.🧵
1) Most importantly, the optics of Biden choosing #Venezuela's crude over domestic production is politically unpalatable. It would also put the admin in the position of trusting another dictator to follow through when there has been zero track record (e.g. previous negotiations).
2) It's unclear what "isolate Russia" means in this case. Venezuela has purchased $11 billion in Russian weapons over the past decade. Will Maduro deny Russian technicians coming to service those weapons? Will he deny Russia port calls? Will he say no to Tu-160 nuclear bombers?
3) For an admin that purportedly cares about environment, this is devastating. Maduro et al. and #PDVSA have been presiding over state-sponsored #ecocide for the past 5+ years. PDVSA oversees an average of 5 oil spills per day and 46,000 between 2010-2016.csis.org/analysis/role-…
4) The assumption that PDVSA can simply turn on the taps is terribly flawed. Even w/ #Iran's condensate, Venezuela's production stands at 700,000 bpd give or take. Biden must understand this isn't a #sanctions thing, but an incompetence, corruption, and lack of maintenance thing.
5) The damage done by this move would vastly outweigh Venezuela's potential to offset production losses if we sanction Russian oil. This is by far the least attractive option of existing ones, such as increasing #US production, or seeking help from partners in the Middle East.
6) Lots of speculation, but if the admin goes through with this, it's an effort to do something they intended to all along. Having lost the natural pivot point provided by negotiations in #CDMX, this is an attempt to leverage a crisis--and will be seen transparently as such. END
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
