Given that the question of Ukraine's territorial integrity came up today in the 3rd round of Ukrainian-Russian talks, I wanted to return to see whether creative diplomacy might reconcile the two positions which as we saw today remain light years apart. 1/
https://twitter.com/FPRI_Orbis/status/1500588594649604098
Finding a way out of the Crimea dilemma is beyond my power at this moment, so let's concentrate on Donetsk and Lugansk. NOTE: recognition by Moscow is a major hurdle, but NOT insurmountable. 2/
As part of any settlement, the "republics" could by treaty "rejoin" or recognize Ukrainian sovereignty. Yes, Ukraine's position right now is that they never left, but perhaps think of it as a version of Reconstruction. Union argued states never seceded, but then had to 3/
readmitted. My favorite template is that of the Aland Islands. They belong to Finland, but had been claimed by Sweden because of past association. Swedish ethnic majority. Islands enjoy extensive self-governance but also also neutral and de-militarized. Useful precedents 4/
for the future: separate relationship with the EU for Aland; an autonomous economic status that allows for differences in policy and regulation from other parts of Finland; special relations with Sweden. 5/
Aland arrangement for the Donbass would keep Ukrainian sovereignty but create a buffer zone and more importantly a zone which could have a separate status with the EU (or even NATO) and be able to have a special relationship with Russia. 6/
Problem is that Aland arrangements, which were also proposed for Serbia/Kosovo and Azerbaijan/Karabakh, don't usually work after blood has been spilled and after such compromises were proposed in peacetime but rejected. Maybe Aland is sui generis to Alanders. END
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