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laurence norman

@laurnorman

Mar 9

@Amb_Ulyanov

Understand from two sources that Russia @Amb_Ulyanov presented updated non paper yesterday to EU which broadened Moscow’s sanctions guarantee demands in direction that Lavrov spoke of on Saturday. That includes a demand to protect Russian trade with Iran from western sanctions-1-

The paper was not well received. “The paper was rejected out of hand,” said a senior diplomat. “They know it has nothing to do with JCPOA.” -2-

So where does this stand? Sources say a deal could be reached with this issue still hanging over the talks. Could this Russian position mean restoring JCPOA without Russian backing? That gets tricky, former and current officials say. Joint Commission decisions supposed to be -3-

Read 5 tweets

laurence norman

@laurnorman

Mar 6

My understanding now of any #IranTalks deal that emerges is several phases of implementation. There will 1/ be a “confirmation” period. That could mean for Majlis and INARA? Not quite clear. Then 2/ A preparation period. (IAEA get material to review?) 3/ we then get... 1/2

Re-implementation day. And then 4/ we get some period for final steps by Iran on nuclear side as I understand it. Total period a few months and aim to do by summer. BUT I understand discussions remain on precise sequencing steps and length. -2-

All this raises a few questions. When would “verification” be? How many steps to return to compliance will Iran/US have taken by June when we find out if IAEA is shutting or keeping open the safeguards probe? When does IAEA get docs and material from Iran? Do US hold off final-3-

Read 4 tweets

laurence norman

@laurnorman

Mar 3

@rafaelmgrossi

#IranTalks: Let's not underestimate significance of @rafaelmgrossi Tehran trip. Let's assume it succeeds, which is definitely an assumption. But if so, it removes probably the toughest of the three remaining issues on the table. Then we can imagine a quick pathway to deal.
-1-

At that point, we have 2 issues essentially. Economic guarantee push from Iran & sanctions scope push. Econ guarantees was worked on for weeks. Iran knows not going to get much more than pretty words. Maybe it gets a few more pretty words. But won't change US legal reality -2-

On the other hand, we know Iran wants unconditional FTO removal from IRGC & I suspect a few other key demands on sanctions. There's a potential (STRESS POTENTIAL) trade-off here. Back off on economic guarantees, US gives a bit more on sanctions. -3-

Read 6 tweets

laurence norman

@laurnorman

Mar 2

Managed to check in with several sources tonight. This is where I think we stand on #IranTalks and some key points...

1 -- Diplos genuinely don't know which way this is going, Most still think this could come together but confidence levels on this are low. The differences that were there on Monday when Bagheri-Kani returned are still there -- safeguards, sanctions scope, economic guarantees.

2 -- Ukraine/Russia has landed in talks in several ways. A: Russia team more tentative about clearing ideas without checking. B, it hardens the idea that diplomatic window to land this deal is short. C/ Optics of sitting down with Russia on this getting more complicated in DC.

Read 6 tweets

laurence norman

@laurnorman

Mar 2

@rafaelmgrossi

IAEA @rafaelmgrossi - not ducking issue. “We are meeting today to discuss the nuclear safety, security and safeguards implications of the conflict in Ukraine as a result of the Russian Federation’s military operation that began on 24 February.”

“The situation in Ukraine is unprecedented and I continue to be gravely concerned. It is the first time a military conflict is happening amidst the facilities of a large, established nuclear power programme,” -2-

“I have called for restraint from all measures or actions that could jeopardize the security of nuclear and other radioactive material...because any such incident could have severe consequences, aggravating human suffering and causing environmental harm.” -3-

Read 7 tweets

laurence norman

@laurnorman

Mar 1

So I understand Swift de-listing package was ready, with its 7 banks & the Belarus sanctions package also. But both on hold because Poland wants more in both, I'm told. So the media sanctions are set to be approved at 2100 CET. But another meeting needed for Swift, Belarus today.

Coreper meeting again at 1900 to come back to this.

@MorawieckiM

Polish source notes that @MorawieckiM said this evening that Polish governments wants all Russian banks delisted from Swift.

Read 4 tweets

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