#IranTalks: Let's not underestimate significance of @rafaelmgrossi Tehran trip. Let's assume it succeeds, which is definitely an assumption. But if so, it removes probably the toughest of the three remaining issues on the table. Then we can imagine a quick pathway to deal.
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At that point, we have 2 issues essentially. Economic guarantee push from Iran & sanctions scope push. Econ guarantees was worked on for weeks. Iran knows not going to get much more than pretty words. Maybe it gets a few more pretty words. But won't change US legal reality -2-
On the other hand, we know Iran wants unconditional FTO removal from IRGC & I suspect a few other key demands on sanctions. There's a potential (STRESS POTENTIAL) trade-off here. Back off on economic guarantees, US gives a bit more on sanctions. -3-
For the US side, they already know they're going to get hammered for the sanctions removal lists, especially for people/entities on terror list. They're already being hammered for it. Always been likely there would be a final trade-off involving key sanctions to seal a deal -4-
By the time @rafaelmgrossi comes back from Tehran with a safeguards deal, the pieces are in place and text being finalized for a deal that people want sorted effectively by tomorrow. Opens way for a deal before Board. Now a big caveat... -5-
This sounds lovely on paper. But we're dealing with reality. Dealing with exhausted diplomats, political pressure in capitals, the Ukraine backdrop and highly sensitive final decisions. Assuming this would be plain-sailing would be foolish. But there's a clear possible pathway-6-
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