Managed to check in with several sources tonight. This is where I think we stand on #IranTalks and some key points...
1 -- Diplos genuinely don't know which way this is going, Most still think this could come together but confidence levels on this are low. The differences that were there on Monday when Bagheri-Kani returned are still there -- safeguards, sanctions scope, economic guarantees.
2 -- Ukraine/Russia has landed in talks in several ways. A: Russia team more tentative about clearing ideas without checking. B, it hardens the idea that diplomatic window to land this deal is short. C/ Optics of sitting down with Russia on this getting more complicated in DC.
3-No-one on western side wants these talks to leak into next week’s IAEA Board. Message I get is this needs to be effectively done by Friday. If not, western side exits, starts escalating pressure. Message will be JCPOA not revivable. Personally skeptical won’t leak into weekend
4 - I get feeling that economic guarantees is the issue that the Iranians here in Vienna in the room feel least strongly about -- or at least realise is most unattainable. Western sources say nothing more to give but my guess is a bit more movement possible on sanctions scope.
5 - Reason negotiations dragging late into night despite 3 fairly immovable differences is that diplos playing with text to see if it can open up solutions on remaining differences. That also has the advantage of demonstrating in the most detailed way how far each side can go.
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