Moscow is starting to feel the pressure. What makes me say this?
1. RU seems stuck militarily. A big chunk of the RU force is already involved in the war. There are problems with reinforcements, heavy casualties and equipment losses.
#RussiainvadesUkraine 1/8
1. RU seems stuck militarily. A big chunk of the RU force is already involved in the war. There are problems with reinforcements, heavy casualties and equipment losses.
#RussiainvadesUkraine 1/8
The goals of the „spec-op“ have not been reached so far. RU seems hesitant to storm Kyiv or Odesa – street fighting in 2 big cities would be a major risk under the circumstances. The idea to occupy the whole or large parts of the country seems even more unrealistic.
2/8
2/8
2. Unprecedented sanctions imposed with unprecedented pace start to bite. So does international isolation, even if Beijing signals continuing support. Western weapons supplies to UA not to be underestimated in this context either.
3/8
3/8
RU society is in a stupor, but polls and other signs suggest the mood is not enthusiastic. People are shocked, shaken up, disorientated. Already now the only tool the state has to deal with resistance is relentless repression. This is driving the unhappy
4/8
4/8
out of the country and into inner emigration, which stabilises the system in the short term. But it might change, and perhaps quicker than they or us expect. A lot also depends on the elite - difficult to get a clear picture of the mood there.
5/8
5/8
Yesterday we saw very slight movements on the RU side, openness to talks, tiny adjustments in Moscow’s negotiating position. All of a sudden „denazification“ vanished from Peskov’s speaking points. So a deal with Zelensky’s UA is becoming thinkable?
6/8
6/8
Of course, all other maximalist demands remain on the table: demilitarisation, neutrality, recognition of Crimea annexation and DLNR. And Moscow keeps playing an atrocious game with UA civilisan population. They are trying to find some kind of exit, but they may still
7/8
7/8
choose to do the worst, attack Kyiv, Odesa. Nothing should be excluded. But the important point I want to make is: they are starting to feel the pressure, and it starts to show. So pressure must be sustained and increased if necessary. 8/End
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