Sabine Fischer Profile picture
Mar 8 8 tweets 2 min read
Moscow is starting to feel the pressure. What makes me say this?
1. RU seems stuck militarily. A big chunk of the RU force is already involved in the war. There are problems with reinforcements, heavy casualties and equipment losses.
#RussiainvadesUkraine 1/8
The goals of the „spec-op“ have not been reached so far. RU seems hesitant to storm Kyiv or Odesa – street fighting in 2 big cities would be a major risk under the circumstances. The idea to occupy the whole or large parts of the country seems even more unrealistic.
2/8
2. Unprecedented sanctions imposed with unprecedented pace start to bite. So does international isolation, even if Beijing signals continuing support. Western weapons supplies to UA not to be underestimated in this context either.
3/8
RU society is in a stupor, but polls and other signs suggest the mood is not enthusiastic. People are shocked, shaken up, disorientated. Already now the only tool the state has to deal with resistance is relentless repression. This is driving the unhappy
4/8
out of the country and into inner emigration, which stabilises the system in the short term. But it might change, and perhaps quicker than they or us expect. A lot also depends on the elite - difficult to get a clear picture of the mood there.
5/8
Yesterday we saw very slight movements on the RU side, openness to talks, tiny adjustments in Moscow’s negotiating position. All of a sudden „denazification“ vanished from Peskov’s speaking points. So a deal with Zelensky’s UA is becoming thinkable?
6/8
Of course, all other maximalist demands remain on the table: demilitarisation, neutrality, recognition of Crimea annexation and DLNR. And Moscow keeps playing an atrocious game with UA civilisan population. They are trying to find some kind of exit, but they may still
7/8
choose to do the worst, attack Kyiv, Odesa. Nothing should be excluded. But the important point I want to make is: they are starting to feel the pressure, and it starts to show. So pressure must be sustained and increased if necessary. 8/End

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More from @SabFis3

Mar 6
My take of the talks so far and the failure of the humanitarian corridor around Mariupol: RU is not serious about the negotiations. Putin and his cronies do not care about humanitarian suffering either. I rest my case: 1/6
#RussiainvadesUkraine
2/6 the composition of the RU delegation said it all, from the very beginning. Medinsky and Slutsky are policy clowns sent there to mess with the Ukrainian side. I do believe that the RU military is under pressure to end the operation. They have problems with reserves...
3/6 ...and supplies, and they suffer more losses than they ever expected. But Putin is not ready to consider retreat, compromise. Plus the majority of RU population are either supportive or silent with exhaustion. The protests are limited to the unhappy minority, which...
Read 7 tweets
Mar 2
Some thoughts about why the Kremlin could miscalculate so catastrophically on basically everything: the steadfastness of the UA leadership, the resolve to resist in UA society, UA military capabilities, and their own capability to figth this war.
I see three factors:🧵1/11
1. There is a blatant lack of knowledge and understanding in RU about political and societal developments in neighbouring countries. They used to be part of the Soviet Union until 1991. After independence RU was first too poor to fund proper research on basically anything. 2/11
In the 2000s, attention shifted to other topics, notably China/Asia. I remember the director of a big research institute telling my once that their attempt to create a department about Russia’s immediate neighbourhood was met with indifference if not ridicule. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Feb 21
It's on. Putin speaks.

smotrim.ru/live/21
Now I understand why he wrote that article about Ukraine last summer: to have something to base this speech on... today's Ukraine is entirely a product of Russian policy... and off he goes.
"We will show Ukraine what real decommunisation is" sounds like a very serious threat to dismember the country.
Read 25 tweets
Feb 21
Meanwhile in Moscow: Russian NSC is discussing situation in DLNR, Ukraine. Live translation via ⁦@ru_rbc⁩ This doesn’t bode well… reader.rbc.ru/share/8R8C9EsH…
Kozak explaining (at Putin‘s request) how Ukraine is not implementing but undermining Minsk Agreements.
Both agree that it is outrageous to think Russia interferes with UKraine's domestic affairs. Insist that Ukraine and Western partners chose to ignore all proposals made by DLNR. Ignore that Ukrainian steps should be agreed with DNLR.
Read 29 tweets
Feb 20
Leaving Moscow after 5 d of intense conversations. Early in the week most people were hopeful about signs of deescalation. Moderates thought Kremlin was calming down. Hawks believed RU would get what it wants merely by mil posturing. This changed in past 2 days.
People who know about economy are extremely worried about consequences of sanctions. But they do not have the Kremlin‘s ear. Haven’t had it for a long time. Liberals fear war AND domestic consequences in Ru: more autocracy, more repression.
Since Friday night everybody should have unterstood the situation is dead serious. What is happening now clearly is a well-staged provocation from the Russian\DLNR side. 23 February is the „National Day of the Defender of the Fatherland“. We‘ll see where we are then.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 26, 2021
1/15 Looking at the outcome of the 🇷🇺 discussion at the EU Summit I have many questions. Why did 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 suggest an EU27 + Russia format when this was clearly not going to fly? Why the urgency?
2/15 Why is there so little reference in the Conclusions to the @JosepBorrellF report? Did the 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 initiative distract the chiefs? Did they not consider the EUHR’s suggestions worth discussing? Would the result have been different without the🇩🇪🇫🇷 push?
3/15 Is the idea of high-level meetings with🇷🇺 heretical? The old summit model had exhausted itself long before it was suspended, as @kadriliik rightly says. They were devoid of substance and increasingly at odds with the harsh reality of a deteriorating relationship.
Read 16 tweets

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