Thread by @sumlenny

THREAD Let me speculate about what expects us after this war. First of all, I expect, Ukraine will win this war, and Russia will loose. Dependent on the level of Western support (incl the level of sanctions) Ukraine will suffer bigger or smaller losses: civilians, inf.structure/1

Russian economy will suffer a complete collapse. Already now Russian economy is weaker than Ukrainian. In contrary to Ukraine, Russia is extremely centralized and dependent on natural resources. Ukraine is diversified and free. Ukraine will also get Western monetary support /2

Within next weeks, Ukrainians will wipe out not only Russian army, but also (much more important for Russia!) terror police units: OMON, SOBR etc. Occupational forces in Russia-occupied national republics will no longer exist. Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Sakha and others go free /3

For the West, this will be a total surprise, like the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Germany will suddenly find out, kein Schwein speaks Tatar or Bashkir. Still, I hope this time Moscovy will be deprived of the nukes, so the lack of expertise will not be so dangerous. /4

Except of the Northern Caucasus, I don't expect any civil-war-like clashes. There are no reasons for that (in N.Caucasus it can be more the revenge against Kadyrov's and other Putin-friendly clans, and it will be fast and bloody). No idea if UN missions will come to ex-Russia /5

But let's come back to Ukraine. Ukraine will face several problems: 1) what to do with millions of Russian refugees which run from hunger and chaos; 2) Should Ukraine accept the regions of Kuban, Kursk, Belgorod etc. which would like to join Ukraine? Maybe also Polissya from BL/6

Both decisions have own pros and contras. I expect Western pressure to accept refugees and not to accept new regions. I am not sure this would the best advice given. Anyway, we will see how Ukraine is emerging as a new regional mega attractive superpower. /7

UKR will go through the biggest national rebirth seen in the 20th century. The end of the - at least - 300 years long war with the nation's survival on stake; the victory of liberal democracy, a tolerant society (Ukraine is mega inclusive) will be the strong national fundament /8

Will the EU and Nato use the chance and fast-track-accept new mighty Ukraine as a member? This would be the only way to sustainably include UKR power into the European security project. I am afraid, the EU and Nato can be reluctant (will Hungary be afraid of UKR for example?) /9

I can imagine arguments of "too strong nationalism", "armed nation" (after the war Ukraine will have a Texas-like gun laws with privately owned assault rifles and machine guns, huge TerOborona National Guard etc.) which will be used against Ukrainian membership. Big mistake! /10

In a case Ukraine will not be fast-track-accepted to the EU and Nato, we will se a mega-strong Israel-like Ukraine. The current war is clearly a Holocaust-like experience and will create Ukraine which looks like post-Holocaust Israel. /11

Ukraine will be completely independent, most probably with a nuke, not trusting anyone around and protecting its own interests. This political development will be totally legit (and maybe even better for Ukraine on a short run), but strategically I would welcome the EU way. /12

Anyway, this turn completely depends on how the EU and Nato will act to Ukraine after the war (and most probably now during the next days and weeks of the war). The EU and Nato must act openly and friendly if we want to have Ukraine as a strong member and ally next decades /13

This way or another, we will have a totally new map of Europe. No more Russia, a very poor central Russia (Moscovy), Europe-integrated Petersburg area (Ingria), national republics along the Volga and the Kama, and a mega strong Ukraine - the biggest regional power with Poland /14

Ukraine will be an open, capitalist, inclusive, tolerant, same time religious society. With integrated muslim population (Crimean Tatars), with the strongest feminist movement (Germany is so 18th century compared to it), with strong army: a society the EU has not seen before. /15

Well, you better have Ukraine as your friend than not. The level of friendship clearly depends on how you treat Ukraine now. Once again: think about Israel. Who could say in 1944 Jews will create one of the most developed and successful states? Ukraine will be another Israel. END