Thread by @sumlenny

THREAD I know it sounds contra-intuitive, but it feels that Russia and its army are about to collapse. RU obviously has no reserves left: the tanks they send to the front are very old, without active armor, look like training machines. They do not have trucks, using civilian ones

Russian flat-bombing of Ukrainian cities is the opposite of what a nation which is about to conquer its wealthy neighbor (and Ukrainian province is wealthier than Russia's one) It is a sign of desperation. Exactly as the attempt to use Red-Cross-marked trucks as ammo transports/2

Within the last days, the amount of Russian warplanes and helicopters shot by Ukrainian army, is increased: at least 4 warplanes and 1 helicopter. We are in the 10th day of war, and Ukrainian air defense is still working, and Russian pilots (the elite of the elite) are dying /3

Reports on Russian higher commanders KIA are proven and numerous. The highest Russian officer KIA is a General-Mayor of Airborne Troops. According to the reports, commanders are forced to move very close to fighting lines, as Russians cannot coordinate their actions - and die /4

Russia has changed in a rush its legislation, allowing imprisonments (starting from tomorrow!) for up to 15 years for spreading truth about this war. Facebook is blocked in Russia starting from now. This is not what a winning autocracy with full control over its media does. /5

According to Ukrainian intelligence (and they get much info from the US I guess) Russia has already used 95% of all its ground forces gathered for the invasion, and it makes almost 100% of Russia's active ground forces. Effectively, Ukraine has eliminated Russian ground forces /6

Combined with economic sanctions, free-fall of Russian currency, pull-back of Western companies (essential for any part of Russian economy) and the consequences of having a highly corrupt and militarized economy, Russia will face also internal troubles very soon /7

What does Putin have left? Of course, he may nuke Ukraine. We all know he can. He also can continue to terror-bomb Ukraine (Russians use now free-fall bombs they have them a lot, and rocket artillery - most cruel and stupid weapons), in a hope Ukrainians will be afraid and fall/8

Russia will also pressure the West to force Ukraine into a "peace" out of "humanitarian reasons". I already see these attempts. This would be death for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian, a true genocide, and slavery for dozens of millions. And it is Putin's last hope /9

If Ukraine would resist several more days, I am sure Russia will face the biggest defeat in its history. Nothing comparable. It will also trigger independency movements in Russia-occupied countries of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Ichkeriya, Sakha, Komi and others /10

Russian occupation forces in these regions are holding only because of allegedly strength of Moscow. When Moscow army will be eliminated (and it nearly is), nobody can force the Bashkortostan to follow orders from the Kremlin. Nobody will stop Chechens to avenge their dead /11

Of course, the next days will be hard. And the nuclear threat remains very real (nukes seem to be the only weapons Putin can rely on). But I am also sure - very soon we will face a shiny glorious future without the Prison of Nations. Thank to brave Ukrainians. Слава Україні! END