The (unconfirmed) news that a Russian warship had been hit and sunk near Odesa are actually not surprising. In contrary to Russian Army which is capable to win amid huge losses, Russian Navy is traditionally not capable even to that. Its history is a history of defeats (THREAD)
According to RU historical tradition, RU Navy was founded by Peter I, an admirer of the West and the founder of Petersburg. He invested huge money and manpower in fleet, but its most famous victory remains Gangut battle: 99 RU ships v 9 SWE (sic!) The fleet has rotten after Peter
Later 18th early 19th, RU fleet tried to compete on the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Admiral Ushakov was pretty effective against TURK fleet. Still, RU gains on the Black Sea were not to protected agains world powers. Amid Crimean war 1854, RU just sunk own fleet in Sevastopol.
Actually, Russian tradition to sink own warships in Sevastopol remained very vivid. Soviet Navy sunk own ships in Sevastopol in 1941, what makes Russian Sevastopol fleet the top one worldwide for the number of own ships destroyed.
But let us go back to 19th century. Russian warships were not modern, crews were ill-trained. As Russian-Japanese war 1905 started, Russians believed, Japanese are a "lower race", and sent its fleet from the Baltic to Japan. The convoy came to Japan in terrible condition.
Russian guns could not reach Japanese ships which had long-range guns. Japanese aiming optic was better. Russian fleet was erased. Russia lost 21 warship, 5000+ seamen KIA, 6000+ POW. Japanese lost 3 ships and 117 KIA. This defeat was one of the reasons for the Russian revolution
(Actually, one of the ships from this group which stayed in Petersburg, had turned to a hotspot of revolutionary ideas and was crucial for the revolution. But this is a remark).
Amid WWII, Soviet fleet remained mostly inactive. Black sea fleet was sunk by own crews. Baltic fleet was blocked in harbor and could not operate. Soviet submarines first left Baltic sea in Spring 1945, untrained and angry. 2 biggest wins of them are 2 German hospital ships.
Both vessels were sunk by Alexander Marinesko, who wrongly believed he attacks warships. Over 9000 refugees and wounded persons died. Marinesko was called a here all the years (and until now) because Soviet Navy did not have any effective commanders, in contrary to Army or AirF.
The history of modern Russian fleet is well-known. The Kursk submarine tragedy tops all the cases of incapability of Navy commanders in the modern history. 118 seamen died on Kursk. Many believe, the submarine was hit by a missile shot from "Pyotr Velyky" cruiser amid drills.
So - no, I am not surprised, if Russia has really lost another ship today. END
*a hero
PS regarding Marinesko: in Petersburg the "Russian Submarine Fleet Museum" is named after Marinesko. The guy, whose two only victories were two unprotected regugees/hospital vessels. Because, as said above, they have nobody who would be better: музеймаринеско.рф
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Reg. "Ukraine may not film POWs!". It is allowed. One may not humiliate POWs, but there is no ban on filming. And as the aggressor denies the very existence of own POWs, it is in their interest to be filmed + identified, so their families could be informed they are alive and fine
Here is the text of the related article. It is clear, that treatment which can cause harm to health or even death are banned. "Public curiosity" is banned also, but it relates to public demonstration of POWs (for example, to let POWs march through a civil crowd to "present" them)
For example, a show-like march of Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk in 2014, as they were exposed to violence and insults, was a clear violation of the Convention. Filming of a formalised interrogation is not.
Now Russia targets Ukrainian media, bombs Kyiv public TV station, located directly at the Babyn Yar memorial site, where Nazis have killed over 30,000 Jews in 1941. So Putin is currently bombing memorial site for victims of the Europe's biggest massacre on Jews.
A normal denazification: you arrest Nazis, educate your people not to attack neighbour countries, be nice.
Russian "denazification": your chauvinist president wants to annex neighbours, attacks every country around him, kills civilians and bombs Holocaust memorial site.
This map demonstrates the proximity of Babyn Yar Holocaust memorial site and the public TV station.
This war will change Ukraine, Russia and Europe. A THREAD: 1) Ukrainian army is demonstrating extraordinary efficiency. Nobody expected (me too) that Ukrainian Air Defence will be that resilient. Ukrainian ground forces are the strongest in Europe. Cities' defence is very good;
2) Ukrainians are crushing Russian units and celebrating this. This is the level of moral developed within 8 years of the war. In 2014, Ukrainian army was not ready to shoot at Russian aggressor. In 2022, it is looking for a fight and enjoys it, knowing, they protect freedom;
3) We are witnessing an exceptional quantum leap in development of Ukrainian society. Maidan has given birth to modern Ukrainian political nation. But it remained divided: "Porokhobot", "Zelena Plisnyava" and other division. Now Ukrainian society has got grown, adult, and PhD;
#Breaking THREAD Ukrainian Army Commander in Chief: at 00:00 25.02. Ukrainian army
in the South:
- Defends positions north to Kherson (Kherson lost?)
- Cars bridge at Kherson re-taken, UA army on Dnipro left bank;
- At Rykove, Russian offensive stopped, Russians suffer losses; /1
In the North:
- Fighting next to Hlukhiv (very close to RU border), Russian column stopped;
- 1st Tank Brigade stopped Russians on the Bilous river close to Chernihiv;
- In Volyn UA army set on defensive positions; /2
In the East:
- Defensive fights at Kharkiv, Sumy, Dovzhanka, Okhtyrka (no info who controls Sumy given);
- In Okhtyrka next wave of Russians stopped; /3
Wir müssen es klar sagen: diejenigen, die seit Jahren ein "Dialog" mit Russland verlangten/förderten, sind an dem heutigen Kriegsausbruch mitschuldig. Mein ex-Arbeitgeber @boell_stiftung ist unter diesen Mitschuldigen. Jahrelang warnte ich als Büroleiter Kiew vor drohender Gefahr
Jahrelang versuchte man, mich stummzuschalten. Als "zu antirussisch" und "pro-ukrainisch" wurde ich eingestuft. Mir wurde verboten, sich über Russland kritisch zu äußern. Dies sollte fürs Büro Moskau eine "Gefahr" sein - auch meine Unterstützung für die ukrainische Sprache.
Seltsame Kontakte des ehemaligen Büroleiters Moskau waren für die Stiftung kein Problem. Dieser gründete gemeinsame Projekte mit dem ex-GRU-Offizier Trenin und schrieb auch nach seinem Verlassen der Stiftung den "Böll-Blog" über Russland. Nur die Ukraine war "nationalistisch".
My forecast for Russia-Ukraine war (THREAD):
1)Putin has made his "big step": the whole show with SecCon meeting, 40 minutes speech on history, signing of treaties. He is happy for a while
2)Russia officially occupies Donbas part of Ukraine. Will provide some show (see above) /1
3) It is not to expect a full-scale offensive next days. Putin has got his show (see above) and can say he has won, the West is defeated; 4) Russia has its leverage: LDNR claims the whole territory of Donetsk/Luhansk oblast. Room for blackmailing Ukraine. /2
5) Escalation along the contact line can go on, but also can decrease. I think it is 35/65 chances. The main goal for Putin will be to force the West to start new "negotiations". Germany will be happy to imagine it is a great peace moderator nation; /3