Thread by @anders_aslund

Rethinking Russia sanctions:
1. The threat of sanctions on Russia failed as a deterrence, because the West was never credible. Western politicians talked about "sanctions to hell" ever so often but did nothing. Putin concluded that nothing would happen.

2. Putin and all his bankers claimed the sanctions of 2014 were ineffective, while @MSnegovaya and i argued that they shaved off about 2.5% of GDP each year 2014-20. Nobody cared about reality, but Russia's GDP did not grow for 7 years.
atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/upl…

3. Before invading Ukraine, Putin thought that Western sanctions have little impact and that the West will do little in the future. He was completely wrong on both accounts. The West, especially Europe was shocked by his stupidity, lawlessness & cruelty & did everything.

4. As a result of his stupidity or ruthlessness, Putin has unleashed Western sanctions that are worse than those on Iran or Venezuela, that have been devastated. Russia is far more vulnerable being dependent for two-thirds of its exports on two products, oil and gas.

5. Highly corrupt Venezuela has had the worst declines in GDP for the five years 2016-20:
2016: -17%
2017: -16%
2018: -20%
2019: -35%
2020: -30%
Tragically for Venezuela, this disaster has not finished the Madura government. Very bad rulers can last long.
imf.org/en/Publication…

6. Iran, which has managed to maintain larger human resources (don't ask me how!), benefited greatly from its nuclear agreement with a GDP jump of 13% in 2016, but the severe (and unjustified) Trump sanctions slashed its GDP by 6% in 2018 and 7% in 2019.
Sanctions work.

7. If Putin had any sense & analytical capacity (which I doubt) he would draw three conclusions:
A. These Western sanctions will devastate Russia.
B. He can stop them by withdrawing from Ukraine.
C. The West holds firm & will not buy his lies.
Yet, Maduro & Mugabe persisted...