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Anders Åslund Profile picture
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Mar 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Garry Kasparov makes absolutely brilliant interview on Ukraine. All right & highly eloquent in Russian. A few ideas:
Putin will go as far as he can. He must be stopped by Western force. He will continue beyond Ukraine otherwise.
The Russian people today have very little information and are therefore inert. They need to see how harmful Putin is. The best way of doing so is to impose maximum sanctions on Russia and to show Putin's war crimes.
The best hope that Putin is taken out is that the generals who do not want to die together with him realize that he is a deadender who cannot win and can only endanger them. Therefore, the West must do as much as possible against him. The war has already started.
Finally, lots of people realize that Putin is today's Hitler. There is no meaning to negotiate with him. He must end. These words are mine, but I fully agree with @Kasparov63's elegant reasoning.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 10
Today, the EU sanctioned 160 Russians, 146 members of the Russian Federation Council (well-deserved) & 14 oligarchs as well as their family members. Are these really the right people? No, the top & worst people are not sanctioned, mainly the second level.
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
The people who should have been sanctioned are
1. Roman Abramovich (too well-connected, with Chabad).
2. Iskander Makhmudov, truly terrible.
3. Suleiman Kerimov, US sanctioned, fronting for Putin on a big scale.
4. Oleg Deripaska, US sanctioned.
5. Boris Rotenberg, US sanctioned.
6. Leonid Mikhelson, co-owner of crony Timchenko in Novatek & Sibur.
7. Putin's 4 cousins that have gained at least $0.5 bn each according to Russian Forbes.
8. All Putin's childhood friends who hold money for him.
It is unfortunate that all these people have been omitted.
Read 8 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 8
Rethinking Russia sanctions:
1. The threat of sanctions on Russia failed as a deterrence, because the West was never credible. Western politicians talked about "sanctions to hell" ever so often but did nothing. Putin concluded that nothing would happen.
2. Putin and all his bankers claimed the sanctions of 2014 were ineffective, while @MSnegovaya and i argued that they shaved off about 2.5% of GDP each year 2014-20. Nobody cared about reality, but Russia's GDP did not grow for 7 years.
atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/upl…
3. Before invading Ukraine, Putin thought that Western sanctions have little impact and that the West will do little in the future. He was completely wrong on both accounts. The West, especially Europe was shocked by his stupidity, lawlessness & cruelty & did everything.
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 8
The contrast is stunning. The proud Ukrainians think that Putin will lose his war of aggression against them, while the Western observers overwhelmingly think Russia will win. Having studied the Finnish Winter War I am all with the Ukrainians.
I am no military expert, but Putin possesses no precondition for victory in Ukraine.
1. His soldiers have no motivation or moral. Even at high command level, they have not been told that they are to fight a war in Ukraine. Putin has given no plausible explanation. They give up.
2. Putin's commanders have fought in Chechnya & Syria. they are used to extreme cruelty and all crimes of war, but can you fight people who Putin calls "Russians" like that? Does not make much sense to anybody, least of all to the soldiers who are asked to do so.
Read 16 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 4
The essence of the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994:
1. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine"...to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine"
web.archive.org/web/2014031718…
2. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine."
4. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate [UNSC] action to provide assistance to Ukraine...if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;"
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 4
How to understand Putin's war in Ukraine.
1. It is not about Nato, EU, USSR or even Ukraine. Putin needs a war to justify his rule & his swiftly increasing domestic repression.
2. Putin is today's Hitler & 24 Feb 2022 should be seen as 1 Sep 1939. Ukraine is Putin's Poland.
3. This is an all-out war. Putin will not stop or de-escalate. He will escalate & proceed until he is stopped by someone at home or abroad.
4. If Putin succeeds in succumbing Ukraine (which I don't think), he would proceed to other countries, perhaps in Africa or Europe.
5. Exactly as with Hitler, the war will only end when Putin is defeated, ousted or dead.
6. It is really all about Putin, not about neo-imperialism, Russian nationalism or even the KGB.
7. Given what Russia does, the West/US/NATO can hardly avoid getting into this war.
Read 6 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 3
The US has just issued new Russia sanctions. Two real oligarchs have been sanctioned, Alisher Usmanov & NIkolay Tokarev, just sanctioned by the EU. Good. Already sanctioned Yevgeny Prigozhin has been sanctioned with family. What difference does it make?
home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
The a whole lot of disinformation agencies and agents from MID, SVR, GRU & FSB have been sanctioned, but none of them is senior or even publicly known, unlike the dozen top disinformers just sanctioned by the EU. Very disappointing. The US: get serious about disinformation!
ABC claims that 19 oligarchs and Putin's chief disinformer Peskov will be sanctioned, but the Treasury has only named two oligarchs so far, Usmanov and Tokarev. Hoping for more.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-an…
Read 4 tweets

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