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Mar 10 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Today, the EU sanctioned 160 Russians, 146 members of the Russian Federation Council (well-deserved) & 14 oligarchs as well as their family members. Are these really the right people? No, the top & worst people are not sanctioned, mainly the second level.
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
The people who should have been sanctioned are
1. Roman Abramovich (too well-connected, with Chabad).
2. Iskander Makhmudov, truly terrible.
3. Suleiman Kerimov, US sanctioned, fronting for Putin on a big scale.
4. Oleg Deripaska, US sanctioned.
5. Boris Rotenberg, US sanctioned.
6. Leonid Mikhelson, co-owner of crony Timchenko in Novatek & Sibur.
7. Putin's 4 cousins that have gained at least $0.5 bn each according to Russian Forbes.
8. All Putin's childhood friends who hold money for him.
It is unfortunate that all these people have been omitted.
But then there is some good news:
1. Dmitry Mazepin of Uralchem and Uralkali has been pumped up with Sberbank credits of billions to take over Belaruskali and Hrodno Azot in Belarus. Wonderful! That made my day.
2. Alexander Vinokurov, odious Sergei Lavrov's son-in-law, who got magnit from VTB in a Kremlin corporate raid. just right!
3. Andrey Guryev Phosagro has been sanctioned. Fair enough, but the real crook is Vladimir Litivinenko who wrote Putin's dissertation & got $1 bn for that.
4. Dmitry Konov, the very decent CEO of Sibur has been sanctioned, unlike his very indecent part-owner Mikhelson.
5. It seems fair that the not very prominent heads of Aeroflot, Rostelecom and Rosnano have been sanctioned. You should not work for Putin's kleptocracy.
6. By contrast, I am not happy to see the Pumpyansky family, Andrei Melnichenko and Vadim Moshkovich sanctioned. These are real self-made russian businessmen in the private sector. They should not be sanctioned just because they have to attend Putin's annual oligarch meetings.
My overall assessment is that the EU has hit two real crooks (Mazepin & Vinokurov), but it has hit many secondary figures while leaving the real crooks aside.
My question remains: Who dares to sanction Roman Abramovich, the oligarch closest to Putin?

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 11
A few thoughts on Putin's war.
1. Putin has not been provoked. He simply wants war as in Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014 or Syria 2015. Wars are good for his domestic popularity - rose to 88% in 2008 and 2014 - and they help hm justify more domestic repression.
2. Putin is stating clearly that he is not in war against Ukraine but against the West - the US, Europe and NATO. It is a delusion to think that the West can stay out of Putin's war. The West should instead think of how and when to fight Putin.
3. Logically, Putin's war ends when he is ousted/killed or when he runs out of soldiers, arms or money. Neither is likely to happy any time soon.
Conclusion: Make all kinds of sanctions as tough as just possible & deliver lots of arms to Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 10
Finally, the UK has become serious, sanctioning 7 top-level Russian oligarchs.
1. Roman Abramovich owner of Chelsea FC and has stakes in steel giant Evraz and Norilsk Nickel
2. Oleg Deripaska has stakes in En+ Group
3. Igor Sechin is the CEO of Rosneft
gov.uk/government/new…
4. Andrey Kostin is Chairman of VTB bank
5. Alexei Miller is CEO of energy company Gazprom
6. Nikolai Tokarev is president of the Russia state-owned pipeline company Transneft
7. Dmitri Lebedev is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank Rossiya.
This is the first time anybody sanctions Putin's top oligarch, Abramovich, Bravo!
Sechin, Kostin and Tokarev are known to come from the KGB.
With his loyalists Sechin, Miller, Kostin and Tokarev, Putin controls the biggest state companies & they draw most money from Gazprom.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 8
Rethinking Russia sanctions:
1. The threat of sanctions on Russia failed as a deterrence, because the West was never credible. Western politicians talked about "sanctions to hell" ever so often but did nothing. Putin concluded that nothing would happen.
2. Putin and all his bankers claimed the sanctions of 2014 were ineffective, while @MSnegovaya and i argued that they shaved off about 2.5% of GDP each year 2014-20. Nobody cared about reality, but Russia's GDP did not grow for 7 years.
atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/upl…
3. Before invading Ukraine, Putin thought that Western sanctions have little impact and that the West will do little in the future. He was completely wrong on both accounts. The West, especially Europe was shocked by his stupidity, lawlessness & cruelty & did everything.
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 8
The contrast is stunning. The proud Ukrainians think that Putin will lose his war of aggression against them, while the Western observers overwhelmingly think Russia will win. Having studied the Finnish Winter War I am all with the Ukrainians.
I am no military expert, but Putin possesses no precondition for victory in Ukraine.
1. His soldiers have no motivation or moral. Even at high command level, they have not been told that they are to fight a war in Ukraine. Putin has given no plausible explanation. They give up.
2. Putin's commanders have fought in Chechnya & Syria. they are used to extreme cruelty and all crimes of war, but can you fight people who Putin calls "Russians" like that? Does not make much sense to anybody, least of all to the soldiers who are asked to do so.
Read 16 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 8
Garry Kasparov makes absolutely brilliant interview on Ukraine. All right & highly eloquent in Russian. A few ideas:
Putin will go as far as he can. He must be stopped by Western force. He will continue beyond Ukraine otherwise.
The Russian people today have very little information and are therefore inert. They need to see how harmful Putin is. The best way of doing so is to impose maximum sanctions on Russia and to show Putin's war crimes.
The best hope that Putin is taken out is that the generals who do not want to die together with him realize that he is a deadender who cannot win and can only endanger them. Therefore, the West must do as much as possible against him. The war has already started.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
Mar 4
The essence of the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994:
1. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine"...to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine"
web.archive.org/web/2014031718…
2. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine."
4. Russia, the UK & the US "reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate [UNSC] action to provide assistance to Ukraine...if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;"
Read 4 tweets

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