The contrast is stunning. The proud Ukrainians think that Putin will lose his war of aggression against them, while the Western observers overwhelmingly think Russia will win. Having studied the Finnish Winter War I am all with the Ukrainians.
I am no military expert, but Putin possesses no precondition for victory in Ukraine.
1. His soldiers have no motivation or moral. Even at high command level, they have not been told that they are to fight a war in Ukraine. Putin has given no plausible explanation. They give up.
1. His soldiers have no motivation or moral. Even at high command level, they have not been told that they are to fight a war in Ukraine. Putin has given no plausible explanation. They give up.
2. Putin's commanders have fought in Chechnya & Syria. they are used to extreme cruelty and all crimes of war, but can you fight people who Putin calls "Russians" like that? Does not make much sense to anybody, least of all to the soldiers who are asked to do so.
3. Putin's two favorite troops are Kadyrov's cruel islamist killers and the free-wheeling Wagnerites. They are now supposed to attack Kyiv after having suffered heavy losses. The ordinary Russian military, the FSB & the SVR cannot like that. Their rivalry is serious in Russia.
4. An elementary observation is that the Russian military appears utterly corrupt. It used to be considered a human right to steal and resell half the diesel. Apparently it still is, because Putin has not fought against corruption anywhere.
5. A large part of Russia's armaments industry has been monopolized in the giant Rostec, which was awarded to Putin's chum from KGB in Dresden Sergei Chemezov, who has never shown any industrial ability, while he is good at enriching himself. That is what Putin wants.
6. The Russian military forces are not large, contrary to Western disinformation. Russia has 190,000 troops allocated for Ukraine, according to good US intelligence, while Ukraine has an army of 250,000 and vast reserves. Russia has only 280,000 in reserves of poor quality.
7. To everybody's surprise, we have learned that many of the Russian troops were young conscripts and poorly trained. Many POWs were even policemen from Siberia. The Ukrainians proudly state: Don't send your poor boys to our meat-grinder! Clearly the Russian army is a mess.
8. The single advantage the Russian armed forces have is their many rockets, mainly Grad or Stalin organs, old awful killers of civilians. Russia also has worse bombs, chemical, biological and nuclear arms. To judge from the primitive Putin propaganda they intend to use them.
9. To judge from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's numbers, which are the only plausible numbers we possess, the Ukrainians slaughter about 1,000 Russian soldiers every day, now 12,000 killed. In Afghanistan, the USSR lost "only" 15,000 soldiers in 9 years & that was a disaster...
10. During Desert Storm in Iraq in 1991, Colin Powell taught us that you need massive overweight for shock and awe when attacking. Russia had none of it. The Russian military don't know what they are doing.
A stunning FSB document has said exactly that.
facebook.com/vladimir.osech…
A stunning FSB document has said exactly that.
facebook.com/vladimir.osech…
The Ukrainians, by contrast, seem to have done most things right. They have won the information war hands down by being honest and providing information. They have made no foolhardy offensives, but waited for the fools to attack them and then killed the aggressors.
President Zelensky has stood up for his nation and unified it showing impressive courage, while the killer Putin obviously wanted to murder him as he usually does.
Ukraine needed a lot of hardware. Given how well Ukraine has showed its case, it has already received an impressive amount of that hardware, stingers and anti-tank weapons. The patriotism, courage and loyalty among all Ukrainian forces is truly impressive.
Just as in the Finnish Winter War, I think that the defender, Ukraine, is likely to surprise the world, but given that Ukraine is so much bigger, has so much more soldiers and arms, Ukraine may soon go to the offensive and clean up these aggressing Russian conscripts.
The problem is that bunker Putin is then likely to use ever more illegal and awful arms to bomb his brother people into the stone age. The West must not allow that! Is NATO an ngo or a military alliance? NATO will be next. NATO must set up a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
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