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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 9 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If the Russians are using unguided munitions to try and take out something as small as a SAM site, they really are struggling.
You can almost tell the sense of surprise from the US spokesperson about how effective the Ukrainian air defense systems have been (or conversely how relatively ineffective the Russians have been in taking them out).
The UK MOD sounds even more bullish when it says that the Ukrainian air defense is having 'considerable success' against Russian aircraft.
Putin was lied to about alot more things than whether conscripts were being sent into combat.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 11
There has been an change in the discussion of a possible Russian success (victory doesnt seem to be used so much these days) in the war against Ukraine, saying that because the Russian Army is still advancing in places, the situation is better for them.
Indeed that article talks about using some battlefield victories (taking of Kyiv) as a means of leveraging greater concessions from Ukraine in negotiations.
This is an entirely different concept of victory than that which was talked about earlier a complete abandonment of maximalist aims.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 11
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are making some remarkable claims today about losses in the air war for the Russians yesterday. They claim 10 Russian aircraft down, 4 by SAMs, 4 by air to air, 2 by short range air defense. facebook.com/kpszsu/videos/…
At the same time they are claiming to have destroyed an entire regiment of Russian airborne forces, with all their equipment including tanks. (I dont speak Ukrainian but have received this summary from the trustworthy @TrentTelenko
These are extraordinary claims and as its war we have to take them with a grain of salt. However if they are even half correct two things seem to be happening.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 11
An important understanding of why time is on Ukraine’s side unless Putin basically commits an entirely fresh army, which would have to start moving very soon.
If this estimate is right, the Russians have already lost 20000 to 24000 killed and wounded. This is without making many attempts to get into Ukrainian cities (which would be very bloody operations)
In the meantime, the Ukrainians have resupplies with massive amounts of the right weaponry to cause massive more casualties if the Russians do move into cities (or indeed move almost anywhere in the open)
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
The Institute for the Study of War has written a noteworthy and commendable update. Now the Ukrainian Army might 'fight to a standstill' the Russian forces trying to encircle Kyiv. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
The Russian Army is not learning lessons, is still having trouble resupplying and the overall Russian performance is 'questionable'. Image
My impression, as a non-expert on the Russian Army, is that a real problem they are facing is a lack of motivation in their soldiers. The Russians seem hesitant, slow to act, rely on firepower, and actually not interested in fighting.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
An interesting and notable change in the last day in public communications by Zelensky and the Ukrainian Defense Secretary. There is talk of victory in a more imminent sense.
A clear sense of confidence, indeed a taunting of the Russians.
They both even look more relaxed and even as if they have had a little sleep. Do others agree?
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 10
I very much understand why you might consider my position hypocritical, and respect that. And I also know many people on my Twitter feed support an immediate no-fly zone (NFZ). Might make sense to develop my thinking a little more.
The discussion of a NFZ is normally couched in terms of how Russia would respond/escalate. However the threat of a NFZ is also a way to keep Russia from escalating. That escalation could involve tactical nukes or chemical/bio weapons.
If NATO goes now for a NFZ, the Russian leadership might calculate that escalation is in their interest. That could be a stated tactical nuke in Ukraine. Would then NATO blow up the world in response? Probably not.
Read 8 tweets

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