Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

An important understanding of why time is on Ukraine’s side unless Putin basically commits an entirely fresh army, which would have to start moving very soon.

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1501718359099981835

If this estimate is right, the Russians have already lost 20000 to 24000 killed and wounded. This is without making many attempts to get into Ukrainian cities (which would be very bloody operations)

In the meantime, the Ukrainians have resupplies with massive amounts of the right weaponry to cause massive more casualties if the Russians do move into cities (or indeed move almost anywhere in the open)

Take a look at this video; almost every Ukrainian soldier has a hand held anti vehicle weapon. Ukraine has been flooded with these.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1501973187202064392

Now a motivated and competent army is thought to be rendered combat ineffective at around 30% casualties. It’s not a rule, but provides a means of analysis

The Russian Army does not seem particularly motivated, it’s had poor maintenance. Poor supply, tactically at times seems naive. So combat ineffectiveness might appear earlier at 20 to 25%

So in two more weeks of similar fighting, the entire Russian Army in Ukraine would need to recover, sooner if they engage in bloody battles to take cities.

And tbh, the longer the Russian Army is in Ukraine the larger the number of wastage losses will grow as well as soldier get tired, lose focus, etc