An important understanding of why time is on Ukraine’s side unless Putin basically commits an entirely fresh army, which would have to start moving very soon.
If this estimate is right, the Russians have already lost 20000 to 24000 killed and wounded. This is without making many attempts to get into Ukrainian cities (which would be very bloody operations)
In the meantime, the Ukrainians have resupplies with massive amounts of the right weaponry to cause massive more casualties if the Russians do move into cities (or indeed move almost anywhere in the open)
Take a look at this video; almost every Ukrainian soldier has a hand held anti vehicle weapon. Ukraine has been flooded with these.
Now a motivated and competent army is thought to be rendered combat ineffective at around 30% casualties. It’s not a rule, but provides a means of analysis
The Russian Army does not seem particularly motivated, it’s had poor maintenance. Poor supply, tactically at times seems naive. So combat ineffectiveness might appear earlier at 20 to 25%
So in two more weeks of similar fighting, the entire Russian Army in Ukraine would need to recover, sooner if they engage in bloody battles to take cities.
And tbh, the longer the Russian Army is in Ukraine the larger the number of wastage losses will grow as well as soldier get tired, lose focus, etc

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Mar 12
Logistics Rule--look at the map. You might be wondering why the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks like a group of almost equidistant road-linked thrusts stretching from Russian and Belarus into Ukraine. (thanks to @Nrg8000 for this) Image
Turning to this War on the Rocks piece, it is said that the average Russian unit has a truck lift to take it to 90 miles (140km) from the closest large supply dump (see below). You would have to double the trucks on hand to get to 180 miles. warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin… Image
Here is the map with a 140km/90mile line (handdrawn, apologies) in black in the middle. What you can see is that there have hardly been any Russian thrusts that have exceeded the natural limit set by their truck lift. Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 12
I wonder if these two tweets are related. Biden saying that the USA will not directly fight for Ukraine while ramping up deliveries of more effective systems. We are watching the formation of new red-lines throughout this conflict.
The uncrossable ones are no ground-forces in Ukraine or aircraft in the skies--no direct exchange of fire. What the US has done, however, is constantly test the red-line of what military systems they can deliver to the Ukrainians.
Otoh, the Russians are trying to push red lines in the other direction. This is quite an audacious claim. THough I dont think they would dare do it, as it would also involve a potential direct exchange with NATO.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 11
Already worth noting that the importance of logistics is being taken as the number one lesson of this war so far.
From the article. Image
If Pentagon war games had Ukraine being conquered in 3-4 days, they were even more mistaken than Putin. This needs some serious introspection.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 11
There has been an change in the discussion of a possible Russian success (victory doesnt seem to be used so much these days) in the war against Ukraine, saying that because the Russian Army is still advancing in places, the situation is better for them.
Indeed that article talks about using some battlefield victories (taking of Kyiv) as a means of leveraging greater concessions from Ukraine in negotiations.
This is an entirely different concept of victory than that which was talked about earlier a complete abandonment of maximalist aims.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 11
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are making some remarkable claims today about losses in the air war for the Russians yesterday. They claim 10 Russian aircraft down, 4 by SAMs, 4 by air to air, 2 by short range air defense. facebook.com/kpszsu/videos/…
At the same time they are claiming to have destroyed an entire regiment of Russian airborne forces, with all their equipment including tanks. (I dont speak Ukrainian but have received this summary from the trustworthy @TrentTelenko
These are extraordinary claims and as its war we have to take them with a grain of salt. However if they are even half correct two things seem to be happening.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 10
The Institute for the Study of War has written a noteworthy and commendable update. Now the Ukrainian Army might 'fight to a standstill' the Russian forces trying to encircle Kyiv. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
The Russian Army is not learning lessons, is still having trouble resupplying and the overall Russian performance is 'questionable'.
My impression, as a non-expert on the Russian Army, is that a real problem they are facing is a lack of motivation in their soldiers. The Russians seem hesitant, slow to act, rely on firepower, and actually not interested in fighting.
Read 4 tweets

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