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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Mar 11, 2022 • 25 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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Thread on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 11
Last night several Russian strikes hit the city of Lutsk in western #Ukraine ImageImageImage
Russian strikes also hit Dnipro in central Ukraine
Video of the strike in Dnipro earlier this morning
Russian strike also hit Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine, near the border Romania, Slovakia and Hungary
We're now after the two-week mark. As a reminder according to plans found by the Ukrainian military (if those are accurate), Russia planed a two-week offensive to capture #Ukraine.

That should have seemed unrealistic then, and certainly is now
Video published by pro-separatist sources from Volnovakha in the Donbass, as the city has reportedly fallen to Russian forces
The city has been mostly destroyed, after days of clashes and heavy bombardment by Russian forces.
A Russian pilot who ejected from his aircraft (unclear which) was killed after his parachute did not open Image
The Ukrainian military recaptured the village of Viktorivka south of Chernihiv. This is the second town to be recaptured in as many days, as Ukrainian forces are trying to prevent Russian forces from surrounding the city.
🚩Russian Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov does not rule out a meeting between Putin and Zelensky in principle, but says negotiators must first do their part.
Peskov also said that Putin speaks with Macron almost every other day (via TASS) #Russia #France
ATGM strike against a Russian tank by the Ukrainian 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade. They claim seven vehicles were destroyed.
Russian Forpost (Russian version of the Israeli IAI Searcher MkII drone) was shot down over Zhytomyr according to Ukrainian sources ImageImageImage
Russian forces deployed under the Mariupol Donetsk highway in the Volnovakha area
From the look of it probably in the Novotroitske area
Protest in Berdyansk, near Mariupol, to denounce the Russian occupation ImageImageImage
🚩 Ukraine Security Service (SBU) accuses Russia of firing at targets in Belarus to accuse Ukraine of "provocations". The SBU denies being involved in strikes in Belarus, and says Kyiv is not planning to attack the country.
This is quite concerning, as it could be the signal for Belarus to get more directly involved in the Ukraine war. This comes just as Lukashenko is visiting Moscow
This is a scenario many, including myself, have warned about.

The Ukrainian military intel also warned a few days ago that Russia was preparing a deliberate provocation to justify the entry of Belarusian troops in #Ukraine
During his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko also claimed he had evidence that Ukraine was preparing to strike Belarus
The Ukrainian army also released this video of the alleged incident.

Source:
facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
Note that for now, the incident is not confirmed from the Belarusian side, official or unofficial (below ⬇️ from an account that has closely tracked movements related to the Ukraine war)
ATGM strike against a Russian armored vehicle in Mariupol
Full statement from the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, accusing Russia of preparing false-flag attacks against Belarus (translated)
facebook.com/MinistryofDefe… Image

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 30
As of now, Gantz and the opposition do not have the votes necessary to pass such a bill, unless there are defections within Netanyahu's own coalition. The question is whether this is an effort to encourage such defections or Gantz does have an indication that there are already defectors? It might also be a gamble, with no real plan.
As a reminder, Gantz has given Netanyahu a deadline (until June 8) to respond to six key demands. Netanyahu rejected the ultimatum moments after it was issued, and there were voices inside Gantz's own party who called to simply leave the government even ahead of the deadline
Advancing a bill to dissolve the Knesset would suggest Gantz is on his way out of the government.
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.

They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
Image
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. Image
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets

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