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Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 Profile picture
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Mar 12 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The Ukrainians have discovered the Switchblade 300 drone. Not sayin’, just sayin’.
I didn’t say they have them yet. I said they discovered them.
avinc.com/tms/switchblade
Do you know your Congressman’s or Senator’s office number? This may or may not be a hypothetical question.

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More from @michaeldweiss

Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 Profile picture
Mar 13
Seeing people say that the U.S. should not announce what military aid it's sending Ukraine for fear of provoking Russia or inciting retaliation. The problem with this argument is that clandestinity isn't necessarily a safeguard and may even be a liability.
Previous armers of Ukraine (e.g. the Bulgarian arms dealer Emilian Gebrev, the Czech MoD-licensed depot in Vrbětice) hardly advertised their activity. The GRU figured it out anyway. And poisoned Gebrev and blew up the depot.
The secrecy of these supply lines, in fact, may have made it more difficult for NATO intelligence services/government to respond in real time. I interviewed Gebrev and he was quite cagey about his clients.
Read 7 tweets
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 Profile picture
Mar 11
So the latest Ukrainian military stats on Russian losses are out and I decided to do a little compare-and-contrast exercise between what Kyiv says and what @oryxspioenkop has verified so far with respect to destroyed, damaged, captured or abandoned units.
N.B.: @oryxspioenkop acknowledges that what is verified relies on "photo or videographic evidence. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."

So let's begin, shall we?
As ever, Ukraine defines its terms a bit differently from how we might do in the West. For instance -- and here I mean no offense to those lovable scamps at Tankist Twitter™! -- Kyiv almost certainly uses "tanks" promiscuously to include also APCs, AFVs and IFVs.
Read 11 tweets
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 Profile picture
Mar 10
So regarding that alleged FSB analyst's letter of complaint... I've gone through it a bit more carefully. These are a few thoughts and observations six days after it was posted. (Usual caveats apply.) Image
There are a few gross exaggerations/overstatements, such as the prediction that "global famine" will hit by the summer owing to reduced grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia.
And there are statements that seem obvious and self-evident: "I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB)..."
Read 34 tweets
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 Profile picture
Mar 9
Don't make me play the Bayraktar song again. In Finnish. Cuz I'll do it.
"bUt dRoNes aRe 'dEfeNsIvE wEaPoNs.'"
Read 4 tweets
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 Profile picture
Mar 9
🧵I spoke this afternoon to a senior European intelligence official. The picture shared about what's happening in Ukraine differs from U.S. government assessments, especially on Russian losses. So let me present (without commentary) what this source said:
"From our estimate, the KIA figure on the Russian side was anywhere from 7,000 to 9,000 a few days ago."
"Bad morale, lack of manpower" is a huge issue on the Russian side. "They're calling in reservists, offering money and contracts to people to go fight and, as you've seen, relying on conscripts."
Read 10 tweets
Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 Profile picture
Mar 8
The backstory of how this all went down in Warsaw is both hilarious and terrifying, FYI.
From what I've heard from a senior Polish military official, the decision to send the MiG-29s to Ukraine -- clandestinely -- was taken a while ago. Then what happened?
Well, people in the PM's cabinet went around boasting of it to foreign diplomats, which may have been why Borrell shot his wad prematurely. Then the Ukrainians (Air Force and Rada) followed suit. Whoops. So much for the element of surprise!
Read 14 tweets

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