Seeing people say that the U.S. should not announce what military aid it's sending Ukraine for fear of provoking Russia or inciting retaliation. The problem with this argument is that clandestinity isn't necessarily a safeguard and may even be a liability.
Previous armers of Ukraine (e.g. the Bulgarian arms dealer Emilian Gebrev, the Czech MoD-licensed depot in Vrbětice) hardly advertised their activity. The GRU figured it out anyway. And poisoned Gebrev and blew up the depot.
The secrecy of these supply lines, in fact, may have made it more difficult for NATO intelligence services/government to respond in real time. I interviewed Gebrev and he was quite cagey about his clients.
By announcing Javelin and Stinger shipments, the U.S. is signposting that any attempt to interdict them is Russia interfering with a completely lawful security arrangement between two partners.
Ukraine has a conventional military (and from the looks of things, it isn't going away soon). Washington is not arming non-state actors or insurgents -- at least not yet. Having nothing to hide underscores how Ukraine is still very much a normal country defending itself from...
... and unprovoked and unlawful invasion. It also creates enormous good will for America within Ukraine that every Ukrainian knows the provenance of his anti-armor or anti-aircraft missile and that more are on the way.
As ever, don't let the enemy do your thinking for you. Russia may have preferred the U.S. to opt for plausible deniability because it forces awkward explanations and engenders public mistrust when things go wrong.
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🧵.@holger_r and I spoke to "Karl," an Estonian expert on Russia's military, for an update on the situation in Ukraine. Karl's observations follow. His previous assessment is here: newlinesmag.com/argument/putin…
No significant developments over the weekend. The frontline around Kyiv remains similar. Ukraine has regained 70% of Irpin or the little that has remained of it. In some areas there is a tiny advance of Russian units.
Regarding the south: Ukrainians have control over some parts of Volnovokha but not all. Russia still controls the eastern parts of it. Russia remains roughly in the same positions around Mykolaiv, and actively attacks Severodonetsk.
So the latest Ukrainian military stats on Russian losses are out and I decided to do a little compare-and-contrast exercise between what Kyiv says and what @oryxspioenkop has verified so far with respect to destroyed, damaged, captured or abandoned units.
N.B.: @oryxspioenkop acknowledges that what is verified relies on "photo or videographic evidence. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
So let's begin, shall we?
As ever, Ukraine defines its terms a bit differently from how we might do in the West. For instance -- and here I mean no offense to those lovable scamps at Tankist Twitter™! -- Kyiv almost certainly uses "tanks" promiscuously to include also APCs, AFVs and IFVs.
So regarding that alleged FSB analyst's letter of complaint... I've gone through it a bit more carefully. These are a few thoughts and observations six days after it was posted. (Usual caveats apply.)
There are a few gross exaggerations/overstatements, such as the prediction that "global famine" will hit by the summer owing to reduced grain supplies from Ukraine and Russia.
And there are statements that seem obvious and self-evident: "I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB)..."
🧵I spoke this afternoon to a senior European intelligence official. The picture shared about what's happening in Ukraine differs from U.S. government assessments, especially on Russian losses. So let me present (without commentary) what this source said:
"From our estimate, the KIA figure on the Russian side was anywhere from 7,000 to 9,000 a few days ago."
"Bad morale, lack of manpower" is a huge issue on the Russian side. "They're calling in reservists, offering money and contracts to people to go fight and, as you've seen, relying on conscripts."