Thinking about possible endgames in Ukraine, I see one major problem (among many others): who could guarantee a new status quo between Russia and Ukraine?
Any outcome of the war in Ukraine in which one side is not clearly winning will require some sort of agreement between Ukraine and Russia. There will be a new status quo that has to be guaranteed.
Outsiders will have to play a key role in guaranteeing this new status quo by supporting the far weaker side, Ukraine. Otherwise it's just a replay of Budapest 1994 or Minsk II 2015 which both failed to deliver security to Ukraine.
Outsiders, namely the west, will have to play a far bigger role, not just sign a paper or host regular talks. If the new status quo is supposed to last, they have to guarantee it with military means.
Yet that's exactly what the West is not willing to do -- guarantee Ukraine's security against Russia. That's why for most Western governments, Ukraine's Nato membership is only imaginable at the moment Russia changes its attitude.
I don't think this fundamental problem can be resolved; unless Russia changes its attitude -- after Putin.
But if Russia largely fails in Ukraine, there will be at least some breathing space for Ukraine.
The breathing space from 2015 to 2022 hasn't been used by the west to invest heavily into Ukraine's military. Yet if there's another opportunity, that's what the west must do -- at least help Ukraine far more to build it's own capacity to defend and deter Russia.
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